Friday, May 1, 2020

Stock market happy days

     I have been puzzled by the performance of the stock market in the face of the recent devastating economic news related to the Covid 19 pandemic.  The economy contracted 4.8% in the first quarter.  30 million people have lost their jobs and yet the market has now regained most of the losses it suffered in March and April.
    My thinking has been for years that there is so much money sloshing around in the world economy chasing profits it has no alternative than investment in the stock market.   Much of the money is controlled by the .01% and they have little interest in the microscopic returns on treasury bills these days.  Paul Krugman in the NYT this morning makes the same point.   As he has pointed out many times before, the interests of Main Street and Wall Street have diverged to the point there is little if any shared vision of the economy.   Most of us depend on economic activity to live and raise our families.  Bezos, Gates, Buffet, et. al. play an advance version of Monopoly with the goal of amassing the greatest fortune possible.    For that purpose, the market is the only game in town.
     In the same issue of the Times, another columnist proposes a universal basic income for everyone making less than 100,000.   As recently as last year, most people would have laughed at the possibility of such a policy.   Now, fully 2/3 of the democratic caucus in the House are advocating some sort of recurring cash payment to Americans, at least for the duration of the pandemic.   A thousand a month may not sound like much to the Masters Of the Universe, but for many right now it makes the difference between going hungry or not.   Income redistribution in the name of a fairer society may be pie in the sky, but if we are putting the order in, I for one am definitely in favor of a UBI.

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