As everyone knows, prediction is not an exact science. It's more like a cross between an ouija board seance and data from the latest supercomputer. Especially when it comes to predicting human behavior, people mostly get it wrong. However, for what its worth, here are my predictions for the months ahead as we battle or surrender to the Covid 19 pandemic.
States are opening for business with little or no infrastructure to test, contact trace and isolate infected people. Citizens are being given little or no guidance besides the admonition to wear masks in public and try to maintain 6 feet of distance between individuals in public spaces. In most cases, judging by photos and video, people are increasingly ignoring these rules. In fact, in some states, mask wearing has become part of the culture wars. If you are a republican sympathizer, not wearing a mask and maintaining social distancing is all part of '"owning the libs".
Some states will cook their statistics to show no increase in infections and sunny summer weather will help with viral suppression to the point where people will throw up their hands and basically try to go back to normal. Infections will continue at low levels and some will die, but the majority of politicians will hail this as proof the virus is "like the flu" and can be managed.
We will stagger through the summer months and just before or just after the election, the combination of seasonal flu and a resurgence of Covid 19 will tax our health care infrastructure like never before. As Rick Bright foretold a House sub committee we will plunge into a winter of darkness the likes of which we have never before seen. A second round of business closures and lack of economic activity will bring on a second great Depression and like it or not, Joe Biden will be thrust into the role of a second FDR. Dog only knows if he is ready, willing or able.
There you are. I sincerely hope I'm wrong about this prediction, except for the election of a Democratic president, but based on the leadership of the feckless current occupant of the oval office and his enablers in Congress, I wouldn't bet against it.
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