Republican con games

As Paul Krugman so ably puts it in today's NYT, the democratic and republican primaries were textbook examples of the differing policies of the two parties toward their respective voters.  With either Hillary or Bernie, the dem voters can count on someone who, however imperfectly will try to fulfill the promises they are making on the campaign trail.  Of the 17 republican candidates who started the primary season, only one is telling voters he will work for them.  The Donald is telling an overwhelmingly white, male audience that it is OK to hate on anyone who doesn't look like them and he'll keep the social safety net programs they depend on in place.  The rest of the field went looking for these voters but weren't willing to promise they would defend social programs and couldn't hide the fact they would cut taxes for the 1% at the expense of everyone else.  It should be an interesting few months until the November election as the Republicans hemorrhage voters and Democrats may actually run the table and control Congress and the Presidency.  As my granddaughter would say, "Oh no... Happened!

Policy, schamlicy

Most of the media waited with baited breath for the "foreign policy" speech being offered by The Donald.  They could have exhaled early, as it was the same as most of the other policy speeches he has offered so far during the campaign.  Short on substance and long on bombast and ignorance.  The interaction between America and its allies and foes has been driven for over a hundred years by the idea of Empire.  From the Spanish-American War in the late nineteenth century to the overthrow of legitimate governments around the world by the CIA during the 20th and the continuing occupation of myriad bases around the globe, our policy has been to project military power to further our economic and political interests.  Much of this sprawling empire is paid for by the client states, including Japan, Germany and the Saudis.  Now comes Trump to tell these vassals that they aren't paying enough tribute to their overlord.  That is the way this is going to sound in capitals around the world.   Perhaps someone Trump respects will advise him to walk back some of this latest round of bluster.   Somehow I don't think it will happen.  He is still striking a chord with the average low information voter, who will eat up this fact free frolic through recent history.  Wait til he introduces Paris Hilton as his new Secretary of State!

The face of things to come

Now that we are reasonably sure of the eventual nominations of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump by their respective parties, it was interesting to hear Trump tip off his strategy for defeating Clinton.  Basically, he said she is only winning the Dem race because she is a woman!  In a country where the electorate is majority female, this seems like a poor choice of memes.  He is correct in figuring his strength will be mostly angry white men, whether the racist yahoos he has been attracting or the dudebros who proclaim Bernie or bust.  He has alienated almost every other voting bloc, so as usual, he is doubling down.  The scary part of the equation is the possibility that any major terrorist attack or economic dislocation between now and November could saddle the country with a president who will make us pine for the Shrub (pun intended).

Social Insecurity

One issue which virtually all the presidential candidates are issuing muted statements is Social Security.  Yet it may be the most explosive problem facing an increasingly greying nation in years to come.  One reason the candidates are avoiding any definitive positions is there are no solutions which will not alienate some portion of the electorate.  Thanks to republican party attacks, low information younger voters believe there will be no program left when they retire.  This is a major problem for many, since with the demise of defined benefit pension plans, most young people have little savings and no plan to put anything aside for retirement.  While many two income baby boomer couples were able to save for retirement, their dual income children need both spouses incomes to maintain a standard of living close to what they grew up with.   The Tea Party taboo on any tax increase for any program makes the easy fix for Social Security; raising the income cap from $118,500 to at least $500,000 virtually impossible in the present congress.  Drastic action must be taken soon, as the program will be unable to pay full benefits starting in 2034 when the Trust Fund is exhausted.  Even then, it will be able to pay 75% of promised benefits, although cuts in income will trigger massive protests by the elderly.  It would seem a no brainer for either Clinton or Sanders on the Democratic side or John Kasich for the Republicans to make this a signature issue.  Raising the cap, expanding benefits for new retirees and making the program into a real retirement alternative to 401K plans for younger voters would have inter-generational appeal. 

Spring watch

I spent a fair amount of time in the garden this weekend, mostly cleaning up the asparagus patch and planting some spinach and onions.  There is very little growth to report.  Nighttime temperatures are still dipping below freezing and daytime highs are in the low to mid 50s.  As T.S. Eliot foretold to gardeners, April is the cruelest month.  The unfortunate side to the miserable weather forecast (1-3 inches of snow tomorrow!) is not only the delay of the gardening season, but the absolute loss of potential growth of various crops.  A recent story by the AP regarding climate said most Americans are fairly happy with the change in America's weather.  90% of the country has experienced milder winters over the past 20 years and only marginally warmer summers.  It turns out that is exactly what most people desire.  The problem that will eventually occur is the summers in places like New York City and south is the summers will become brutally hot.  Until that happens, climate change will remain a punchline.  Meanwhile, residents of the NCR as well as many locations at latitude 40 and above are not getting the benefit of milder winters or warmer summers.  It doesn't look like anyone will be planting palm trees on Lake Champlain anytime soon.

Bad Liberals

An opinion piece titled "Smug Liberals" appeared on Ezra Klein's website the other day and I'm sure it stimulated lots of discussion.  The author, a card carrying liberal himself spent most of the article projecting his own prejudices on millions of others who believe a government of the people, by the people, for the people should not perish from the earth.  Mainly, he goes after the supposed tendency of Democratic elites to dismiss the "Reagan Democrats"; union and evangelical voters who support Republican candidates who fail to address their underlying economic concerns.  The "why are they voting against their own interests" trope with which they comfort themselves in the face of electoral losses.  He then castigates liberals for not engaging these voters and taking them seriously.  Up to a point, he has the right of it.  Both political parties have tended to ignore the vast middle and working classes except during the election cycle.  It's easy to ridicule the thousands who turn out for Trump rallies and cheer his misogynistic, racist rants, but according to the author anyone who falls into this easy stereotyping is condemning themselves as well.  His ultimate point seems to be we should not underestimate Trump because he has begun to mine this seething anomie and it may prove far stronger than we may think.  The trouble with this analysis is there are probably no solutions to the economic problems many people face that don't require vast government actions.  This is a chicken and egg puzzle.  The last time "liberals" had control of the executive and legislative branches of government they crafted Obamacare specifically to provide health care for the forgotten.  Thanks to that bit of classic liberalism, the Dems promptly lost the House and in 2014 the Senate.   Who voted these caring individuals out of office.  I'm betting it is the same people who support Trump.  So, what to do?  After decades of trade deals which hollowed out the manufacturing infrastructure in America, it will take an all hands on deck enthusiasm from both parties to undo the damage.  Not gonna happen.   Besides, the robots will take many of the jobs that do come back.  Which brings us back to the central premise of the author's rant.  Start taking the working class America seriously and stop making fun of people who are lashing out because they are hurting.   Sounds easy...

Prince and Earth Day

 As far as I know, Prince and Earth Day have virtually nothing in common.  If the iconoclastic singer, songwriter, provocateur had any color in mind it was purple, not green.  Earth Day, while something of a counter-culture spectacle, at least in its earliest incarnation, is and was a more dour manifestation of the late 20th century America.  But here we are, celebrating Mother Nature and mourning one of her baddest boys.  For myself, Prince was another manifestation of the annoying 80s.  Culturally and musically, the 80s were foreign to those of us with small children, large debt and jobs that demanded our full attention.  Reagan's presidency was anathema to those of us who came of age in the late 60s and by association, most of the music made in that decade was suspect.  Of course, if you listened to music on the radio or sampled the new fangled videos on MTV, you couldn't avoid Prince's top 40 hits.  Songs like Purple Rain, Little Red Corvette and 1999 were ear worms that will probably survive long after their author.  The confused sexual identity and salaciousness of his lyrics and persona alternately attracted and repelled me.  He definitely influenced many people in my generation as well as our progeny.  Meanwhile, the Paris climate accords are being signed today with hope and trepidation.  The US has pledged to reduce carbon emissions by 25% over the next decade.  The lynchpin of the policy which will enable the reduction is curbing power plant emissions.  Basically, this means eliminating coal from its principal use which is electric power production.  Thanks to Republican party controlled states, the entire accord could be nullified in this country after the Supreme Court agreed to stay the EPA from enforcing the new climate parameters.  Some things never change... 

Back and forth

As the weather continues to whipsaw between late winter and early summer, it seems like the lot of the dedicated gardener and farmer is becoming more interesting by the minute.  20 inches of rain in Texas, hail the size of baseballs, drought in the West and continuing uncertainty in most of the rest of the country are making decisions of what and when to plant more and more of a gamble.  While very few people are saying it out loud, I have to believe government officials concerned with food supplies are starting to get nervous.  Agriculture on the scale needed to feed billions of people operates in a narrow range of temperature and precipitation regimes.  Farmers are stubborn and will continue to plant even in the face of mounting evidence of futility, but at some point, failing performance and common sense will force changes.   At the very least, we are on the way to higher prices for smaller supplies.  I used to scoff at people who predicted growers would be switching to controlled environments in giant buildings in the future.  Now, it doesn't seem like pie in the sky anymore.

It was up to NY

For Hillary and The Donald, it was a combination of two of Frank Sinatra's signature songs; New York, New York and My Way.  The two candidates turned around stories of their imminent demise and returned the narrative to a triumphal march.  Bernie's campaign was reduced to threatening to harangue unelected superdelegates who are mostly supporting Clinton in an effort to upset the story of a growing gap in pledged delegates and the popular vote.  While I hope Bernie continues to push Hillary further to the left, the character attacks need to stop now.  Let's argue the issues without attacking the personalities.  Some of Sander's surrogates seemed particularly bitter he didn't do better in NY, despite spending far more than Clinton's campaign.  What they don't realize is Hillary has been working with many state politicians for decades and there is baked in loyalty which leads to the kind of support a sometime Democrat can only dream of.  Saying that independents should be able to vote in a Democratic primary is disingenuous at best.  Closed primaries are logical if you are looking for the will of party regulars concerning their nominee.  Meanwhile, there were fewer and more muted calls for #NeverTrump as the new face of the Republican party rolled to a crushing victory over Cruz and Kasich.

Which way

The polls and the pundits have spoken and despite the 25,000 plus at his recent rallies, Bernie will lose in New York and face all but certain elimination from the Democratic race.   Of course, his partisans still hope for a Wisconsin style upset which will fuel a triumphant run through the rest of the primaries.  Unlikely, but possible.  Hillary has eschewed the large rallies, because her greying supporters are not likely to show up unless there are chairs and plenty of bathrooms!  Bernie is the Moses of the Dems.  He will not see the promised land, but his efforts and the enthusiasm his supporters could very well push the party back to its New Deal roots and mobilize the younger generation.  This happened to the Republicans in the aftermath of the Goldwater debacle in 1964.  Instead of folding, the young ideologues who supported him built the infrastructure which has enabled so many conservative victories, culminating in the election of Ronald Reagan.  Right now, there is a high school junior or senior who has been captivated by Bernie's rhetoric and will begin the journey which will lead to the kind of change Vermont's junior senator envisions.  It will take time, but meanwhile, Hillary has tacked to the left and will have to own some of the policies she would never have otherwise.  Ultimately, she will feel the Bern!

Weekend Dreams

It seemed as if spring finally arrived on the NCR this past weekend.  Temps in the upper 50s on Saturday and upper 60s on Sunday provided the impetus for a gardening revival at Casa Monzeglio.  Aside from some yard cleanup, I was able to plant spinach, peas, parsley, beets, carrots and strawberries.  The cold frames are now host to peppers, snapdragons and celery root.  No freezing temperatures are predicted for the next 10 days, so it would seem the weather has settled in for the moment.  Speaking of hot and cool, Plattsburgh got a taste of big time politics on Friday when The Donald rode into town and spoke to a couple of thousand maniacs at the local civic center.  Fittingly, he set up the podium on astro turf and proceeded to give his usual short on specifics and long on intolerance stump speech.  A few partisans were interviewed and allowed as how we need a strong leader right now.  I wonder who they were referring to.  Next up on Saturday, 500 Bernie supporters clogged the streets downtown to support the fantasy candidate on the other side.  It looked like the yin and yang of the present race for the presidency.  It will be interesting to see the returns for this area after Tueday's vote. 

Tired Gladiators

The two candidates for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination squared off last night in Brooklyn and traded sharp jabs at what they perceived as their opponent's weaknesses, but some of it sounded like a spat between Ma and Pa Kettle about who was going to take out the garbage.  After months on the campaign trail, 68 year old Hillary and 74 year old Bernie looked like America's grandparents and probably felt like it too after punching and counterpunching on CNN.   The partisans on either side felt their candidate had the best of the exchanges.  Hillary had no good answer to her close ties to Wall Street and Bernie's disastrous Daily News interview called into question his mastery of the details of foreign and economic policy.  Meanwhile, Bernie's handlers cite his wins in the last eight caucuses as proof he should be considered the front-runner.  Unfortunately, the combined population of the states he won is just a hair more than that of New York and with the proportional allocation of delegates, a Hillary win will put Bernie in a nearly untenable position.  He has the money to continue to run, but the demographic he appeals to, namely young white progressives is not nearly enough to overcome Hillary's broader appeal to older voters, blacks, latinos and women.  I hope Bernie continues to push her farther to the left and makes the Democratic platform something all progressives can be proud of.  But we need him to make a commitment to support all Democratic candidates and build an organization which will retake the Senate and make inroads into the Republican house majority.  That will be a legacy he can be proud of.

Privacy in the 21st Century

Many Americans, especially the younger generations, treat their smartphones as something as necessary as an older generation might have felt about cars.  There are plenty of teens and twenty somethings who don't have driver's licenses, but very few not connected to society with a phone.  After all, with a phone, you can Uber a ride virtually anywhere, order a pizza, connect with "followers", run a business or even call Mom.  That's why the introduction of legislation in Congress to compel phone manufacturers to hack their products if enjoined by law enforcement is a hot button topic.  When so much of our private lives are potentially available for scrutiny in the name of national security, the tired arguments about terrorists don't necessarily ring true.   Despite the well known proclivity of our children to share their innermost thoughts and feelings on Facebook or Twitter, even they realize the danger of government access to their phones.  Police states since the dawn of civilization have been looking for the tool to control the masses.  Complete access to smartphones is the holy grail of 21st century authoritarians.  It will start in the name of combatting terrorism, but where will it end.

Creation and destruction

In a NYT op-ed piece this morning, Stephen Rattner argues the republicans in Congress who blocked administration attempts to ameliorate the lives of ordinary workers displaced by trade deals and the Great Recession  created the phenomenon of Donald Trump.  By rejecting virtually every initiative from Obama, the republicans created an alienated base which is ripe for the grandstanding authoritarian populism of The Donald.  Obviously this is a simplistic answer to a complex series of questions, but it made me think once more of the obvious disconnect between republican party policy and the middle and lower class base on which it depends for the votes to elect officials.  The social issues; abortion, gay bashing, dog whistle racism, etc., which has been a staple inducement for religious conservatives to vote for the GOP have lost some of their appeal.  Meanwhile, the economic lot of the working class has fallen precipitously and there has been no credible response from government except to shred the safety net.  As they realize their position as cannon fodder in the republican army, many have fallen for the facile authoritarianism Trump offers.  Much as Hitler and Mussolini played on the economic fears of their followers, Trump promises "there will be so much winning you'll get tired of it".  For poorly educated, low information voters, it's much easier to listen to Donald who promises to institutionalize your prejudices against "those people" and advances a vague program to help your economic situation.    The dems don't seem to be able to address these voters' fears either.  Wonky programs lose their attention and besides, they feel most of the benefits will flow to the others.  Which ever way you analyze this situation, it's not good for democracy.

Clinton and Sanders

One of my daughters asked me the other day how I can support Hillary when Bernie is a much more progressive choice.  It made me think about the dynamics of the campaign so far.  When Bernie jumped in and announced his candidacy, I was feeling the Bern and even attended an early rally here on the NCR.  It was mostly younger people with a sprinkling of middle aged and elderly "granola" type former hippies.  It reminded me of the types who supported George McGovern in 1972.  The difference for me was Bernie was promising a revolution.  As the campaign has worn on, however, the same stump speech is starting to get stale.  I need specifics about how the "revolution" is going to take place.  Meanwhile, more and more states are passing laws hindering the voting rights of the very people who will need to turn out for Bernie in the general election.  I saw the youth of my time work for McGovern and then not turn out when the election was on the line.  If kids wouldn't turn out to end the Vietnam war, how can we expect them to do so in the name of ending inequality.  This isn't 1789!  Meanwhile, Hillary may not be the best speaker in the world, but she is doggedly persistent and has a policy wonk's grasp of the issues.  She may not be the best first woman candidate for the presidency, but she's the best we have right now and it could be a generation before another woman with the right stuff gets the chance.  I guess it comes down to my belief that it's time for the distaff side to win and my wariness of Bernie's optimistic views translating to actual policy.  It's a tepid endorsement, but that's what I have.

Testing limits

We seem to have flipped months again.  April 11 and it is snowing on the NCR as I write this diatribe.  Sunday was beautifully sunny, but temps hovered in the mid thirties with gusty winds until the latter part of the afternoon.  Meanwhile, in Augusta, Jordan Spieth learned, maybe for the first time in his life what legions of golf duffers live at least once every season. That is, the dreaded quadruple bogey can leap out at any time and destroy what was until that time a very good round of golf.  At 22 years of age, Spieth has lived a golden American dream.  He decided early on he wanted to be a professional golfer and his parents had the means and desire to help him make it happen.  Winning the coveted green jacket in 2015 on his second try seemed to enhance an aura of invincibility on the Master's course.  For three and a half rounds, that can't lose inevitability continued, but bogeys on the 10th and 11th holes gave the rest of the field some hope and two shots  into Rae's Creek on the 12th pretty much assured that someone else would be wearing the green jacket at 7 p.m.  Despite a brave attempt, Spieth has made sure he will never intimidate a field in quite the same way Tiger Woods was capable of doing.  However, he handled the collapse with dignity and class and showed the rest of us would be golfers how to handle humiliation on perhaps the greatest stage in the sport.  I'll remember that the next time I contemplate a dunkathon at one of our local courses.

It's getting nasty out there

The weather, politics, gardening.  It seems not to matter as we stumble through the beginning of April.  It's snowing again this morning on the NCR and the weekend doesn't look good for any outdoor activities.  Meanwhile, the cage match also known as the Presidential primaries has landed in New York and it is definitely getting nasty out there.   The Daily News, the city's biggest tabloid, suggested Ted Cruz, a critic of "New York Values", take the FU train out of the Bronx!  Bernie is now saying Hillary is a tool of Wall St. and unqualified to be president and she is returning the favor. And the The Donald is being himself.  No one seems to be able to find John Kasich.  We have a ten day onslaught of overwrought campaign ads coming up and finally a vote.  I have a feeling most people will yawn and ignore the whole thing, except for the real partisans.  For the past 20 years most of us have felt let down by the leaders we have chosen and the policies they have pursued.  What we need are practical solutions to real world problems, not pie in the sky promises.  I hope the nastiness on the Dem side at least illuminates the choice we have to make.  The Republicans, on the other side haven't got a clue what their candidates stand for besides ad hominem attacks and poll numbers.  The Flying Spaghetti Monster help us all!

A Tournament unlike any other

Let's take a day off from politics and gardening and talk about my other passion, namely golf.   This being the interlude between the Wisconsin and New York primaries and with last night's snow a forced halt to any gardening, the Master's Golf Tournament will occupy most of my leisure hours between now and Sunday.  Despite the somewhat racist and misogynistic policies of the Augusta National Golf Club, the golf tournament started in the time of Bobby Jones has managed to capture the imagination of golfers and even casual acquaintances of the game.  For 4 days in April, the attention of many is focused on the pristine grounds of a former indigo plantation now devoted to golf.  Most of us will never enter the grounds, where a ticket to see all 4 rounds will probably cost more than a Super Bowl ticket, but thanks to television we will have the best seats in the house.  The winner of the tournament will have to figure out the crazy breaks and pin positions on ultra slick greens.  Being out of position by a few feet can turn a birdie opportunity into a double bogey.  For most of us weekend duffers it is a chance to see the game's greatest players humbled by a three footer for par.  I don't pretend there is any great social significance to the Masters, but I will live the golf life vicariously for the next few days and toast the winner of the 2016 edition of the green jacket.

Minimal wages

Thanks to upstate lawmakers and the disproportionate power they wield in Albany, minimum wage workers in jurisdictions north of NYC will not be making $15.00/hr. even by 2021.  Comments by some of our local NCR representatives are self serving and despicable.  Claiming employers would be hurt by higher minimums, some went so far as saying a $9.00/hr. wage would be more in line with the needs of employers.  I would like to remind these toadies they are supposed to be representing all people, not just a few.  Numerous studies have shown even poor areas like upstate NY benefit overall from minimum wage increases.  If existing businesses must rely on the implicit government subsidies which allow workers to toil for less than subsistence wages, maybe they don't deserve our support.  The new law phases in $12.50/hr. wages for upstate workers by 2021.  By then, most of the benefit will have been eroded by rising cost of living.  It makes no sense for NY to adopt this two tier system when it has never been done before.  We are condemning a large portion of the state's economy to a lower standard of living on a continuing basis.

Past as Prologue

I am continually amazed at the reaction of a sizable portion of the democratic party's electorate who have a diffuse, but persistent anger at Hillary Clinton.  She is described as haughty, corrupt, angry and not trustworthy, especially by millenials and some older men and women.  Having lived through the Clinton presidency and the tidal wave of republican investigations into anything and everything Bill and Hillary did throughout their entire lives, I can with reasonable confidence say there is nothing left to investigate.  The Benghazi and Hillary's e-mail "scandals" are the latest in a series of nothingburgers served up by republicans dating back to whitewater and beyond.  If there was a single crime uncovered by any of these investigations Hillary would be wearing an orange jumpsuit by now.  Compared to the torture allegations against Bush and Cheyney it is doubly annoying to listen to the little shits on Trey Gowdy's house committee preach to their republican choir about how they are getting to the bottom of Benghazi.  It is a mistake for the dems supporting Bernie to suggest that somehow Clinton is untrustworthy without actually citing instances of actual behavior.  That's why my daughters and so many other young democrats cite spurious allegations as reasons to distrust Hillary.  There is probably no good defense to these doubts except to point out who is blowing the smoke and manipulating the mirrors.

Where's the heat

By no means am I a climate change skeptic.   The data and the consensus among climate scientists convinced me long ago that the crisis is upon us.  However, that won't keep me from grousing that is seems the NCR lags when it comes to unseasonable warming.  One of the expert predictions is that our area will remain "normal" for some years to come due to its proximity to the melting Greenland icecap.  The cold melt water coming off the ice will push and possibly disrupt the gulf stream which tends to warm the Northeast during the winter.  So the one possibly good thing about global warming, namely golf and gardening in March and early April are on hold for another year.  It is 19 degrees here this morning an the soil in the garden is frozen for the moment.  The garlic is up and trying to grow and the first planting of spinach is making an appearance, but otherwise it might as well be December.  At least the tomatoes and peppers are up in the basement and the onions are growing in a cold frame.  I also noticed a hardy golfer at the local driving range hitting balls yesterday despite temps in the low 20s.  Hope springs eternal in the numb...

Where is Noah when you need him?

According to a vastly more pessimistic report on climate change which was reported yesterday, catastrophic melting of the icecaps in Greenland and West Antarctica could raise sea levels as much as 6 feet by the year 2100.  Considering the speed at which these studies are revised, we may find out much more than that may occur within the lifetimes of young adults.  Six feet of sea level rise will make NYC and a goodly portion of Long Island (I'm talking to you little brother) prone to flooding and low lying coastal communities around the world nearly uninhabitable.  Hundreds of millions of people will have to retreat from present day cities.   Of course the study leavens a little of its pessimism by saying if we keep the average global temperature rise at under 2 degrees Celsius further sea level rise may be avoided.  Meanwhile, we continue to drill baby drill and pour immense amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere while the USA, which could provide the leadership to combat climate change is in denial of the whole problem.   Ironically, the nomination of Donald Trump and the electoral holocaust he may bring to the Republican party may provide the space necessary for America to tackle climate change and the need for renewable energy under a new Clinton or Sanders' administration, especially if the House falls to Democratic control.  I seem to have a new reason to fight for political change.  The Monzeglio clan will welcome a new member this October.  Congratulations Merry and Nick.  We need to make sure the little guy or girl grows up in a safe and sane world.  In the meantime, I'll be looking for Ark plans....