Grumpy prognostications

As we head into the absolute trough of winter this weekend, it's time to admit it.  I hate winter.  There, I already feel better.  With the predicted high for the next 3 days at 8 degrees and the low in double digits below zero here on the NCR, I can only imagine what the perennial cold spots in the area will be experiencing.  It is time to gather all the seed catalogs in front of a roaring fire and dream of warm days in the garden and on the golf course.  If Punxatawney Phil sees his shadow next week, I prescribe roast groundhog as a palliative for the next 6 weeks.

National service and the minimum wage

With the rise of the "volunteer army" in the 1980s, the debate over national service has muted.  The draft and the citizen armies of WW 2 and the Vietnam era at least gave the illusion of a requirement of serving your country.  Unfortunately, that service was only requested for war making, and only involved young men in peak physical condition.  It is time to revive the idea of service to your country.  Only, this time, let's make it service in the true meaning of the word.  Besides national defense, let's use the desire and energy of the young people of this country and even older folks to rebuild the failing infrastructure of roads and bridges which bind us together.  If everyone is obliged to spend 2 years in service, whether military or civilian, we will engage a vast pool of labor.  Setting a wage of $15.00/hr. for those young people will allow them to save for future endeavors, while putting a floor on all wages in this country.  The bureaucracy that would be necessary to direct this youthful energy would also provide jobs for many.  It would seem like a no-brainer, but the debate needs to start.

recycling and the end of waste

Not really, but the new ban on Styrofoam take out containers and coffee cups is at least a nod in the direction of less waste.  In my own case, I have spent many nervous hours reducing coffee cups to a pile of foam beads but I have not had that experience in some time.  Obviously paper cups have become cheaper, so the new ban is more symbolic than substantial.  However, we need to encourage the trend.  Next up, plastic shopping bags.  I try to keep a supply of canvas shopping bags in my car for expeditions to the local Hannafords, but lately I have run out and am accepting the mostly one use bags.  I feel like a wastrel when I see most of my fellow shoppers schlepping their recyclable bags to the checkout.  We are far from the end of waste, as evidenced by the "Waste Mangagement Phoenix Open" golf tournament being played this weekend.  If I had told my parents 50 years ago that the weekly trip to the town dump would be parlayed into a multi-billion dollar business, the laughter would have been embarrassing. 

Crying wolf for fun and profit

Shouldn't the weathermen be held accountable when they predict massive snowstorms and we wind up with a few flakes.  Central Park in NYC was reporting 5 inches of snow on the ground this morning with possibly another inch or two to come.  This after breathless reports all day yesterday predicting 2 feet of snow and blizzard conditions.  Governments relying on this information closed roads and transit systems, forced businesses to close and stalled all economic activity.  I'm sure somewhere in the wilds of Maine someone will measure 2-3 feet of snow, but in New York, the costs of these bungled forecasts will probably total in the hundreds of millions of dollars.  I sure wish I was in a business where you can be wrong more than 50% of the time and still remain a respected and well remunerated member of society.

Civilization and the thread of distribution

As the northeast braces for the season's first big snowstorm, the thread that holds the entire region together, transportation of food and fuel hangs in the balance.  More than likely, it won't be as bad as the weather channel is painting it, but what if it was worse.  30 or more inches of snow in major metropolitan areas can cripple transportation for days.  People are trapped inside and major food distributors can't get supplies or ship what they have in stock.   Within 48 hours civilization can be hanging by a thread.  In this case we are talking about a snowstorm.  What would happen if a truly global event disrupted the supply of food and fuel for weeks or longer.  What would our vaunted civilization look like then.  It is worth a thought, especially when the threats posed by climate change begin to present themselves.

The Doyens of Deflation

That phrase in Paul Krugman's NYT column this morning caught my eye.  Reminiscent of Spiro Agnew's famous "Nabobs of Negativism" jibe at the press during the Vietnam war protests, Krugman's ire is directed at the policy makers in Europe and to a lesser extent America during the fiscal crisis in 2008 and beyond.   Instead of proposing large scale stimulus backed by government spending, the  Europeans and their Republican soulmates decried the ballooning deficits and preached fiscal austerity.  Fortunately for us, the Obama administration and the Federal Reserve ignored the chicken littles of the GOP and the result is the strongest recovery in the world.  Meanwhile, led by the Germans, the Eurozone continues to suffer with a deflationary spiral, aggravated by an aging population and wrong-headed policies.  The so-called doyens of deflation continue to call for sacrifices from other people while they congratulate themselves on their perceived virtue.  The elections in Greece may put a far left party in power with a mandate to renegotiate the crushing terms of the bailout of their economy.  With 60% unemployment among younger Greeks, the austerity model is wearing thin on a country which may lose 2 generations of productivity.  If Europe refuses to alter the terms and Greece defaults, the resulting crisis may echo around the world, putting even the American recovery at risk.   No wonder Krugman scorns the policymakers in the Eurozone.

Solving the inequality puzzle

As anyone can see, birth has nothing and everything to do with your prospects for success in life.   A child born to a single mother with a minimum wage job has a lottery winner's chance of rising to middle class status.  Meanwhile, the child of parents in the 1% is virtually assured of a good living, regardless of her native intelligence and ability.  We decry this inequality, but do virtually nothing about it.   the  president offered some tepid prescriptions for dealing with the problem, but even such commonsense proposals as a child care tax credit for the middle class are DOA in a republican congress.  What about a real attack on the problem...  I would propose a national guaranteed income equivalent to a 40 hour week at the minimum wage for everyone.  Cancel all the social welfare programs and substitute this payment.  That, coupled with early childhood interventions like preschool starting at the age of three and continuous education through junior college would give lower class toddlers a fighting chance to move up the social ladder.  Many would call this program socialism, and maybe it is, but I don't see how we can lift millions out of poverty in a generation without radical measures.

Obama and Inclusive Capitalism

Another SOTU, another round of inspection and dissection. Add 5 different republican responses and you have grist for a months worth of punditry.  My take on the President's speech as heard in the clips and commentary is one of hope and combativeness.   As ever, Obama is hopeful that something meaningful will get done by congress.  Since the last two congresses have set new records for inactivity, I believe the president's hope is woefully misplaced.  The adversarial tone of the speech was more welcome.  In his heart, I think Obama has finally realized he is so hated by the redneck, racist republican base that no one from the GOP can be seen as even agreeing with him, much less working with him.  That and the realization he doesn't have to campaign any more freed him to express his progressive mojo.  The idea of "inclusive capitalism" seems to have found a home in the democratic party as a counterweight to republican support for trickle down capitalism.  The former makes the government the counterweight to unbridled greed and market rigging.  The latter would continue the accumulation of vast wealth at the very top of income distribution.  The democrats desperately need a doctrine which gives hope to the lower and middle classes.  Without a concrete program which helps the 99%, dems will probably continue to control the White House, but will be stymied by a congress which is basically bought and paid for by powerful interests opposed to any redistribution of income.  That is the challenge thrown down by Obama.  Subsidized higher education, tax breaks for the middle class, a higher minimum wage for those struggling at the bottom.  All these things will create a more inclusive society.  We can dream...

MLK and the state of the union

As per usual, tonight the President will address Congress and declare "The State of the Union is Strong", to polite applause.  At least he won't have to hear some redneck yell "You lie", I hope.  For many members of congress and their constituents, the celebration of MLK day and the specter of a black president addressing the nation in primetime is enough to bring on another attack of ODS (Obama Derangement Syndrome).  It's a shame we will only have one more opportunity before Hilary Clinton induces another malady among the same crowd!  I hope the President will talk about food and the nation's agricultural policy.   With over 45 million people on food stamps and many more probably eligible for them but kept away by pride, hunger in America is a huge issue which must be faced.  Also, the ramifications of ag policy extend far beyond profits on American farms.  Methane emissions from livestock, overuse of antibiotics, accurate labeling on processed foods, and calorie disclosures on restaurant menus are just a few of the subjects that could be addressed but probably won't.  Farm policy touches on many other issues which could be coordinated by the president's advisor on this area.   I know the recent triumphs in foreign policy, immigration and climate change will be front and center, but making sure the population has adequate nutrition is perhaps the greatest challenge the country faces in the short term.

In the bleak midwinter

The last few weeks have been a throwback to winters of yore in these parts.  Relentless cold with episodes of snow and little in the way of sunlight to mitigate the depressing cold.   Nearly everyone is dealing with some sort of upper respiratory malady and the office sounds like a TB ward this morning.  It is easy to let the freezing weather and nasty road conditions convince you to cocoon in front of the TV and wait for spring.  Fortunately, the mid-winter deluge of seed catalogs and travel brochures provide some respite.   Envisioning a tropical getaway with the Divine Mrs. M and the imminent start of the gardening season will drag me away from my weather induced torpor, I hope...

The terror trap

Ever since 9/11, the world has been confronted by the paradox of terrorism.  The harder you try to stop it by means of force, the more you encourage new players to enter the game.  Of course, the poster child of this approach was the invasion of Iraq.  By killing tens of thousands of Iraqis and plunging that nation into turmoil, we helped spawn many Al Queada offshoots, leading eventually to ISIS which threatens our 2 trillion dollar investment in Iraq.  The European nations are not immune from the fallout either, as the attack on Charlie Hebdo proved.  This attack was probably the fruit of institutionalized racism in France toward the Muslim population.  Now Yemen is touted as another Afghanistan; a failed state where terrorist can train with impunity.  The talking heads decry the US strategy of targeted assasinations of terrorists by means of drone strikes, but also admit the Iraq strategy of putting "boots on the ground" is not viable.  What no one wants to talk about is the economic and social factors which create militants willing to die in large numbers.  When poverty and racism combine with religious tenets which encourage jihad the result is decades of conflict spreading around the world.  The solution, which will never be implemented is to attack the underlying causes of the violence.  If the young men who attacked in Paris had good jobs and felt like respected members of their community, they would have had no reason to acquire guns and make suicide their mission.

Socially insecure

Once again the republicans have majorities in both houses of congress.  Once again they are mounting an attack on the Social Security program.  As one wag put it they are using cripples to scare old people so they can slash both benefits.  With republicans, I think it is always about "those people" getting benefits they are not entitled to, whether young or old, disabled or just unable to fit into modern society.  Of course, in the final analysis it is the 1% driving this agenda, but the rank and file buy into the greedy geezer, layabout young buck, welfare mother tropes that are trotted out every time the social security program is perceived to be in trouble.  There are multiple easy fixes available, from raising the max income taxed from its present ceiling to raising the payroll tax, but in the present congress these will not be considered.  Here, the mantra is  "We must cut benefits now, so we won't have to cut them later".  Despite the fact there is overwhelming support in the country for actually raising social security benefits, we have to deal with the fact Americans elected a coterie of rich men who would prefer  to cut the aforementioned benefits.  This is your democracy.  Cherish it.

Veg pricing and the economy

I spoke with one of my customers in NY this morning and despite the high prices most veg are bringing, he is not happy.  Most wholesalers make their margins by pushing volume, and high prices reduce the amount of packages they can sell.  Besides that, the accounts receivable manager usually establishes credit limits which many customers are exceeding with only small purchases.  Finally, at some point markets will fall.  When that happens, customers will be stuck trying to sell high priced inventory in a falling market.  Fun times.   Also, the frigid temperatures gripping most of the country have cut the appetites of the consumer.   My mother said there would be times like this....

Baby it's cold outside

-14 Degrees below 0 this morning and counting.  Winter is tightening its grip on the NCR and looks like no respite before the weekend.   People up here say you need to embrace the winter in order to survive.  Personally, I would like to play a flamethrower over it, then retire to a nice warm house and a hot toddy.

Charlie Hebdo and solidarity

There was a huge march in Paris yesterday to demonstrate solidarity with the slain staff members of Charlie Hebdo, the satirical French magazine.  Millions of people throughout the country, many of whom would have considered the magazine tasteless and crude, declared their allegiance to Charlie and by association with free speech.  I did not detect much in the way of support from Americans.  Aside from a few reports of the demonstrations, most networks concentrated on football and the Golden Globe awards.  I suppose we could not be expected to feel the same emotions as the French since we didn't lose any citizens to a terrorist attack.  However, I wonder if the staff of the Onion or another satirical rag in this country was massacred would Fox News and other right wing opinionators be as outraged as the situation would demand?

Off the Wall

Emboldened by their recent congressional victories, it would seem many republicans have become unmoored from what the rest of us consider reality.  From Mitch Obstructionist McConnell claiming credit for the rebound in economic growth because of "anticipation of a republican majority", to Lindsay Graham blaming the president for the Charlie Hebdo massacre, the crazy is echoing through the capital.   As I have said from day one of his presidency, Obama has mobilized the racist base of the republican as no one else (with the possible exception of Hilary Clinton) could.  While most of those knuckle draggers would question the legitimacy of any democratic president, the specter of a black man who is obviously more intelligent than they are drives at least 40% of the population crazy.  I can only imagine the reaction to President Clinton in 2016!

Religion and the limits of freedom

While most western pundits expressed horror and outrage at the assassination of 12 journalists and police at the Paris offices of the satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo, there seemed a little lack of understanding of how such a thing could happen.  Instead of examining the social and cultural antecedents of the affair, they immediately branded the killers as murderous thugs.  The same was true of the men involved in the Boston Marathon bombing.  Yes, it is correct to condemn  the killings in both cases.  However, we need to do a little self examination to see if just maybe the policies western governments have followed for the last several hundred years, dating back to the Crusades may have contributed to the pent up rage that was expressed in Paris and Boston, and even 9/11.  I can only wonder if a satirical Muslim publication in  America depicted Jesus Christ in flagrante delicto with Mary Magdelene would we be condemning some fundamentalist Christian for murdering the editors of said paper...

Europe and the new old age

Europe seems to be the poster child for the idea all prosperous democracies will eventually encounter economic senility as their populations age.  Japan is already there and China may well be next.  What does it mean when the reproductive rate of a country falls below the replacement rate of approximately 2 children per woman?  The relentless rise of the cost of raising children saps the desire of couples to commit to years of two earners working full time to attain the same standard of living previous generations achieved with a single earner.  Day care, housing, college costs and other out of pocket expenses make it less and less enticing.  France, the anti-Christ to many on the right has bucked the trend by basically subsidizing reproduction.  Generous benefits for young couples, including child care and education subsidies makes raising children attractive again.  People really love the warmth and love a family can generate.  The trick is to make it affordable.  If we don't, the aging population will be cared for by foreigners and the new blood essential to keep democracy vibrant will gradually disappear.

Now is the time

We now have the time and the opportunity to break our addiction to oil.  The price is plunging, alternative sources of energy are more competitive than ever and the looming crisis of climate change will challenge the livability of the blue planet if we don't take this chance to change course.  A new carbon tax on oil, a hike in the gas tax to pay for infrastructure improvements and more research in mass transit and home heating alternatives will pay big dividends when the price of oil inevitably rises.  The sticking point is the will of our "leaders" to actually do what we elected them to do.  With a Republican congress firmly in the pocket of the oil companies there seems to be little hope of any of the above prescriptions becoming law anytime soon.  The President can use the "bully pulpit" to exhort and cajole, but aside from proposing new regulations which will be shot down by congress he has little real power.  The last time a president tried to get Americans to change their habits it was seen as weakness and Jimmy Carter lost the next election to Ronald Reagan who promptly removed solar panels from the White House roof.  I can only hope we learned a lesson from that debacle.

Resolutions

Historically, I have not made too many resolutions for the New Year.  Knowing the weakness of this particular flesh, I prefer not to disappoint myself.  However, this year I have made a couple of exceptions.  I will not patronize any fast food restaurants until the employees receive a living wage.  If that involves paying more money for my hamburger fix, I'm OK with that.  In the meantime, Mickey Ds, Burger King, et al will have to get along without my patronage.   My other resolution is to appreciate the virtues of the Divine Mrs. M and spend more time with her.  I think both of these resolutions are doable and satisfying.  Beyond that, we'll see where the New Year takes me.  Relentless blogging, golf, gardening and grandchildren are the watchwords, not necessarily in that order.