Grumpy prognostications

As we head into the absolute trough of winter this weekend, it's time to admit it.  I hate winter.  There, I already feel better.  With the predicted high for the next 3 days at 8 degrees and the low in double digits below zero here on the NCR, I can only imagine what the perennial cold spots in the area will be experiencing.  It is time to gather all the seed catalogs in front of a roaring fire and dream of warm days in the garden and on the golf course.  If Punxatawney Phil sees his shadow next week, I prescribe roast groundhog as a palliative for the next 6 weeks.

National service and the minimum wage

With the rise of the "volunteer army" in the 1980s, the debate over national service has muted.  The draft and the citizen armies of WW 2 and the Vietnam era at least gave the illusion of a requirement of serving your country.  Unfortunately, that service was only requested for war making, and only involved young men in peak physical condition.  It is time to revive the idea of service to your country.  Only, this time, let's make it service in the true meaning of the word.  Besides national defense, let's use the desire and energy of the young people of this country and even older folks to rebuild the failing infrastructure of roads and bridges which bind us together.  If everyone is obliged to spend 2 years in service, whether military or civilian, we will engage a vast pool of labor.  Setting a wage of $15.00/hr. for those young people will allow them to save for future endeavors, while putting a floor on all wages in this country.  The bureaucracy that would be necessary to direct this youthful energy would also provide jobs for many.  It would seem like a no-brainer, but the debate needs to start.

recycling and the end of waste

Not really, but the new ban on Styrofoam take out containers and coffee cups is at least a nod in the direction of less waste.  In my own case, I have spent many nervous hours reducing coffee cups to a pile of foam beads but I have not had that experience in some time.  Obviously paper cups have become cheaper, so the new ban is more symbolic than substantial.  However, we need to encourage the trend.  Next up, plastic shopping bags.  I try to keep a supply of canvas shopping bags in my car for expeditions to the local Hannafords, but lately I have run out and am accepting the mostly one use bags.  I feel like a wastrel when I see most of my fellow shoppers schlepping their recyclable bags to the checkout.  We are far from the end of waste, as evidenced by the "Waste Mangagement Phoenix Open" golf tournament being played this weekend.  If I had told my parents 50 years ago that the weekly trip to the town dump would be parlayed into a multi-billion dollar business, the laughter would have been embarrassing. 

Crying wolf for fun and profit

Shouldn't the weathermen be held accountable when they predict massive snowstorms and we wind up with a few flakes.  Central Park in NYC was reporting 5 inches of snow on the ground this morning with possibly another inch or two to come.  This after breathless reports all day yesterday predicting 2 feet of snow and blizzard conditions.  Governments relying on this information closed roads and transit systems, forced businesses to close and stalled all economic activity.  I'm sure somewhere in the wilds of Maine someone will measure 2-3 feet of snow, but in New York, the costs of these bungled forecasts will probably total in the hundreds of millions of dollars.  I sure wish I was in a business where you can be wrong more than 50% of the time and still remain a respected and well remunerated member of society.

Civilization and the thread of distribution

As the northeast braces for the season's first big snowstorm, the thread that holds the entire region together, transportation of food and fuel hangs in the balance.  More than likely, it won't be as bad as the weather channel is painting it, but what if it was worse.  30 or more inches of snow in major metropolitan areas can cripple transportation for days.  People are trapped inside and major food distributors can't get supplies or ship what they have in stock.   Within 48 hours civilization can be hanging by a thread.  In this case we are talking about a snowstorm.  What would happen if a truly global event disrupted the supply of food and fuel for weeks or longer.  What would our vaunted civilization look like then.  It is worth a thought, especially when the threats posed by climate change begin to present themselves.

The Doyens of Deflation

That phrase in Paul Krugman's NYT column this morning caught my eye.  Reminiscent of Spiro Agnew's famous "Nabobs of Negativism" jibe at the press during the Vietnam war protests, Krugman's ire is directed at the policy makers in Europe and to a lesser extent America during the fiscal crisis in 2008 and beyond.   Instead of proposing large scale stimulus backed by government spending, the  Europeans and their Republican soulmates decried the ballooning deficits and preached fiscal austerity.  Fortunately for us, the Obama administration and the Federal Reserve ignored the chicken littles of the GOP and the result is the strongest recovery in the world.  Meanwhile, led by the Germans, the Eurozone continues to suffer with a deflationary spiral, aggravated by an aging population and wrong-headed policies.  The so-called doyens of deflation continue to call for sacrifices from other people while they congratulate themselves on their perceived virtue.  The elections in Greece may put a far left party in power with a mandate to renegotiate the crushing terms of the bailout of their economy.  With 60% unemployment among younger Greeks, the austerity model is wearing thin on a country which may lose 2 generations of productivity.  If Europe refuses to alter the terms and Greece defaults, the resulting crisis may echo around the world, putting even the American recovery at risk.   No wonder Krugman scorns the policymakers in the Eurozone.

Solving the inequality puzzle

As anyone can see, birth has nothing and everything to do with your prospects for success in life.   A child born to a single mother with a minimum wage job has a lottery winner's chance of rising to middle class status.  Meanwhile, the child of parents in the 1% is virtually assured of a good living, regardless of her native intelligence and ability.  We decry this inequality, but do virtually nothing about it.   the  president offered some tepid prescriptions for dealing with the problem, but even such commonsense proposals as a child care tax credit for the middle class are DOA in a republican congress.  What about a real attack on the problem...  I would propose a national guaranteed income equivalent to a 40 hour week at the minimum wage for everyone.  Cancel all the social welfare programs and substitute this payment.  That, coupled with early childhood interventions like preschool starting at the age of three and continuous education through junior college would give lower class toddlers a fighting chance to move up the social ladder.  Many would call this program socialism, and maybe it is, but I don't see how we can lift millions out of poverty in a generation without radical measures.