Alternate history

       If the mob that stormed the Capitol on January 6 at the behest of a failed former president had been just a little better organized it is possible a whole different story could have been written regarding the 2020 election.   Much as Caesar crossing the Rubicon led to the overthrow of the Roman Republic, tRump's incitement of his MAGA followers could have caused the deaths of many congressional representatives and the declaration of martial law by the president*.

      Fortunately, tRump is too lazy and ignorant to have plotted a successful coup.  However, as incompetent as he is, we still came within a few minutes of losing our democracy nonetheless.  I doubt we will be so lucky the next time.   And there will be a next time.   

      If tRump was successful, what would the political landscape look like right now.   For one thing, the pandemic would continue to rage out of control since the government would remain a shell of its former self with a cabinet of acting secretaries beholden for their titles to the commander in chief.   Legislation to muzzle the  press would probably be passed and any criticism of the president* would be banned.   The results of the election would be overturned and tRump would be declared president for life by the remains of congress.

     I could go on, but you get the idea.   That is why the impeachment trial starting today is so important.  We cannot let tRump's crimes against democracy go unremarked.   He will not be convicted, but he must wear the scarlet letter of impeachment as a deterrent against the coming of a competent authoritarian.

Winning votes and losing the argument

        Paul Krugman in the NYT has it right today.   Paring down the Biden administration's Covid relief bill not on policy considerations but merely to win a few Republican votes is the definition of political insanity and Biden knows it from personal experience.

       Obama listened to his political advisors and cut the stimulus bill by hundreds of billions of dollars in order to win 3 Republican votes in the Senate.   The stimulus saved the economy from immediate implosion, but was not big enough to get it moving quickly enough to blunt the economic suffering that happened in much of the country.   That in turn allowed Republicans to say that government spending is ineffective.

       Now, Congress has another bite of the apple.  There is overwhelming support in the country for Biden's proposals and in particular for the relief checks of $1400.00 for voters making less than $75,000 individually or $150,000 for couples.   The "smart" people seem willing to reduce eligibility to $50,000 for individuals and $100,000 for couples.  On the surface, this seems like a reasonable compromise.  However, in many areas of the country, the higher threshold is still not a lot of money and there would be pain and a sense of betrayal if these people were not included.  BTW, people in this income bracket tend to vote Republican.  This is Biden's chance to convince them government can work for them.

    Krugman also makes the point that future measures such as infrastructure spending will be more popular if the first relief bill affects a wider cross section of America.   It's time to learn from history and mobilize popular sentiment around policies which help the most people.

Crazy times

         Even with the internet and  the 24 hour news cycle it's undeniable we live in a crazy time, although the aforementioned facilitators amplify the insanity.

        The Gamestop pump and dump scheme played out in public and in real time.  It basically let the public know that for all the financial markets' utility in the capitalist world, they can occasionally be turned into a glorified casino where the chumps can be separated from their money, sometimes in spectacular fashion.  The original take was this was a band of Davids taking on the Goliath hedge funds.  In the end, it turned out the Goliaths probably infiltrated and duped the Davids.

      Meanwhile, Marjorie Taylor Greene made a half assed apology to her fellow members of the House.  She admitted 9/11 took place, but on the other hand didn't show any contrition for harassing students who survived the Parkland school shooting, nor did she apologize for liking a post on facebook calling for a bullet to the head of Nancy Pelosi.   She also didn't mention her assurance to fellow Q devotees that the hanging of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton was being planned.   Even though she was stripped of her committee assignments by Democrats and some Republicans, she will remain a cancer in the House until the next election.   

    Who knows what will come out in the late Friday news dump.   Stay tuned and be ready.

The urgency of now

      I hope Joe Biden has read Barack Obama's autobiographical recounting of his 8 years in the Oval Office.   In "A Promised Land", Obama recounts  the relentless obstruction of his plans by the republican minorities in the House and the Senate.  In a futile search for a bipartisan unicorn, the president allowed Republicans to downsize relief for the Great Recession and the ACA.  The first 2 years were consumed by the minutia of congressional foot dragging and by the time those programs were enacted, the Tea Party effectively ended the possibility of immigration reform and voting rights legislation.

      It is fashionable to blame Obama for these shortcomings, but to do so would be akin to blaming LBJ for not going to China and opening it the way Nixon did.   Much as Jackie Robinson did when he played for the Dodgers in the 40s and 50s, Obama was obliged to put up with insults and prejudice no white man would have put up with.  He could not call out Republicans for obstructionism without being accused of playing the "race card".

     Fortunately, Biden doesn't have to worry about racist obstructionism and being called to sacrifice his electoral mandate in the name of comity.   So far, the president is politely, but firmly telling Republicans they are welcome to input in legislation, but not obstruction.   Let's hope he continues to do so.

The Revolution of rising expectations

       Democrats in and out of Congress are probably going to be swamped with the importunities from their various bases.   On some issues, such as the economy, Dems can actually meet the expectations they have raised.  $1400.00 checks, money for schools and small businesses and funds to expedite Covid vaccinations are all very popular.  Border security and voting rights are another story. 

  A pathway to citizenship for 11 million immigrants without documents is not nearly as popular, even with the Democratic base.    Tens of thousands Central Americans fleeing political violence in their countries are presently waiting for immigration hearings on the Mexican side of the border and they are not going away.   A minority of citizens are in favor of allowing these people in.   However, the ethno-nationalist frenzy whipped up by former president* tRump and Republicans looking for ways to stay in power may very well erupt  in violence if this policy is embraced by Dems.

      Americans support voting rights in the abstract, but when the rubber meets the road, a large minority of our fellow citizens would happily vote for Jim Crow restrictions meant to disenfranchise large swaths of black and brown voters whom they consider unworthy to exercise our most fundamental right.

     How president Biden handles these rising expectations and steers legislation addressing them will determine how successful his administration will be and whether our democracy will survive.

A Democrat and a Republican walk into a bar

        So the joke will be on us if president Biden spends more than 5 minutes considering the Republican "plan" for Covid relief.   In the process of delivering a 600 billion dollar plan which insults the very idea of bipartisanship, the gang of 10 Republicans are replicating the playbook they used during the Obama years to delay aid until it was so late and inadequate that Democrats paid with the loss of their majority in the House in 2012 and the Senate 2 years later.

       Yes, we have to play the kabuki of bipartisanship, but as many have pointed out, Americans don't care how relief gets out of Congress, as long as it happens.   The dinosaurs who told Obama to delay aid in the name of comity are mostly retired or defeated.   It is left to the press to continue the game of bipartisanship in a bad faith effort to stir up a Dems vs. Repubs meme.  Lucy is hovering the football as we watch in horror.

So much to talk about

      Beware the Jewish space laser.   Watch the former president*' legal team implode.  Gamestop!  Brady or Mahomes.   Putin or Navalny.  If I had the time and the audience who cared enough to read it, I could come up with a few thousand words on any of these topics.   Alas, with no time and a small readership, I'll cut corners and encourage those who care to check out their favorite reliable media for details.

    Marjorie Taylor Greene finally attracted critical rather than mocking media attention this past weekend.  If she had been covered this way during the run up to her election to the House this past fall, she wouldn't be in the spotlight now.

      tRump's latest legal team quit a mere 7 days before the impeachment trial is to begin.  He actually is rumored to have argued he could do a better job defending himself.  Bring it on!

      The Gamestop stock debacle is sure to occupy the comic relief slot in most newscasts this week.  As the details come out I think it will look less like a David vs. Goliath story than a scam being worked on the hapless suckers who in a different life were tRump supporters.

     It looks like Putin will have to repress Navalny supporters all across Russia if his regime is to survive the winter.

     Mahomes in a walk.