Backwards and Forward

Looking back over 2012, at least for the garden and the produce industry, it was a story of mixed blessings.  The winter deal in Mexico and Yuma was an unmitigated disaster as overplanting and lack of demand led to rock bottom pricing.  Produce growers must begin to wean themselves from the contract mentality which says you must overproduce to meet your obligations.  The contracts are not profitable enough to offset the returns from the overplanted acres which were usually consigned to market houses with insufficient business to absorb the surplus.   Prices rebounded somewhat as the deal moved to Salinas, but the local deals in the east which expand every year took the edge off.  Buy local is the new mantra, and the chains are scrambling to find growers who can meet the new food safety requirements.  That is not easy, as many family farms can't find the resources and expertise to devote to ramping up their compliance efforts.  Conditions did not improve as the seasons progressed and we are back to where we were last year at this time.   Personally, the garden was a mixed bag with some triumphs and a few abject failures.  The latter included the direct seeded onions and fennel, both of which suffered from the drought conditions we experienced this past summer.  On the other hand, the hot, dry weater led to a bountiful tomato and sweet corn harvest.  The lettuce was also a winner, along with carrots and beets.  With a few more timely rain showers it might have been a banner year.  To paraphrase the old saying, "2012 is dead, long live 2013".   May everyone who reads this blog have a happy and healthy New Year!

Weather and Holidays

The snow is over for the moment, and it is the Friday before what will be a long holiday weekend for most people.  New Year's eve is on Monday, so let the party begin.  Meanwhile, the shippers need to ship and receivers expect deliveries, even with the highways in less than optimum condition.  Let the fun begin.

Winter Blunderland

It's been a snowy morning and it shows no sign of letting up.  One of the jarring things about an adult snow day in the produce business is the limited scope of the area affected, compared to the overall geographic locations of our customers.  We expect 16 inches of snow here which is causing road closures and authorities are advising limited use of vehicles.  Meanwhile, it is raining in NYC and people there expect their orders delivered on time and without excuses.  My mindset is that of a 10 year old.  Let's go and play in the snow.  The adult says no that is not what we do on a weekday, even if it is snowing.  So you sell and take orders and then the trucks cancel on account of road conditions.  In other words, it's time to go play in the snow.

A Modest Proposal

Several internet commenters, including the NYT's  Paul Krugman have noted recent gains in productivity have not resulted in higher pay for workers.  The reasons cited are many, including depressed demand for said workers, globalization of trade, increased competiton and the mechanization of many occupations.  This last I think is perhaps the most important longer term trend.  As any student of agricultural history can tell you, the mechanization of farming over the last 150 years has shrunk the percentage of Americans employed on farms from close to 40% of the population to less than 3%.  Most of those workers displaced by machines were able to find work in the booming factories which led to America's ascent to the world's only superpower.  However, there is at present, no place for the workers whose place is increasingly taken by machines.  In this increasingly capital intensive economy, the relatively unskilled younger workers are unable to gain a toehold in the economic system.  If this generation can't move into more skilled positions, the next gerneration will be even less prepared and more poverty stricken as the nation's wealth becomes more and more concentrated.  Unless we want to live in a society like Orwell's "1984", we need to do something to redress the growing inequality among our citizenry.
Of course, socialism is out because "Freedommmmm".  But perhaps a little back door socialism is the way to go.  Herewith, a modest proposal for Congress whenever it finishes this fiscal cliff farce;  start by declaring that every American is entitled (that dirty word) to health care, a nutritious diet and a warm or cool place to live.  I am thinking in terms of monthly stipends to every man, woman and child in the US to cover these necessities.  Obviously this expansion of the welfare state will have to be covered by the profits and income of the rentier capitalist class.  Once the minimal material needs of everyone are taken care of, people may choose to work for more elaborate lifestyles, or not as they fancy.  I believe most of us will want to work to at least maintain a higher standard of living.  Many people will say this is a utopian fantasy, but as the underclass becomes more and more desperate, the bread and circus route will seem a more supportable alternative than an armed police state and big brother.  Just saying.

Oh SNAP!

Looks like the Agriculture bill will pass one of these days, and no doubt any programs designed to help the poor will be savaged in the name of "deficit reduction".  The chief target as always is the food stamp program, or more euphemistically, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) which for some reason arouses the Scrooge in the Republican Party's base.  This dates back to Ronald Reagans apocrophal Cadillac driving welfare queens.  Of course it's probably even less true now than it was then, but when did facts ever get in the way of a good story.  One thing that might serve both sides would be a ban on using food stamps to purchase soda.   The pols could brag they are punishing the poors, especially the blahs, and by limiting food stamp purchases to healthy foods instead of high calorie junk, the country might provide better nutrition to the less fortunate and better health outcomes.   The overconsumption of highly sugared beverages has been directly linked to childhood obesity and the rise of type 2 diabetes in young adults.  Doubling the value of food stamps used at Farmers' Markets would be another good outcome if it paralells the New York program.  While we can't legislate our way out of our health problems, perhaps we can use the carrot and stick approach to encourage healthier eating among the poor.

Christmas Wishes

Since produce sales will not be foremost on people's minds this day, let me indulge in a few Christmas wishes.  Truly, let their be peace on earth, and goodwill among men.  Let us feed the poor, comfort the homeless and begin a civil discourse to solve our nation's problems.  Give our elected officials the strength to end our foreign wars and bring the troops home.  Let's deal then with our bloated defense budget and start making strategic cuts that reflect the paucity of challenges to the world's most powerful military.  Use the savings and the broadly based tax increases on those that can afford it to start federal employment programs so everyone can experience the satisfaction of useful work.  Get the economy moving, so these programs become unnecessary.  Control gun registration and ownership with commonsense rules to help eliminate the mass shootings which destroy our nation's cohesiveness.  Finally, let us give thanks this Christmas that we live in this time of vast potential to solve humanity's problems and reslove to realize our commonalities are far greater than the divisions we perceive.  All of our great religions are at their core an attempt to bridge our differences.  Let's give them a chance.  Merry Christmas to all and many more for all of us.

And all through the house...

Not a produce buyer was stirring, except maybe a louse.  The only buyers willing to do so are offering peanuts for produce or nothing but a promise to "do our best".  Those are the words sellers dread to hear.  But the expected holiday business has not come to pass and anyone with perishable green stuff is likely to make any kind of deal to move it before Christmas.   I don't know if the "fiscal cliff" is the culprit for lack of movement or perhaps the national sad over the Sandy Hook Elementary school massacre, but whatever, this is one of the slowest Christmas holidays I can recall.  Unfortunately, with the tea party wingnuts seemingly in control of Congress, the sluggish markets will probably continue as we ease into the new year. 

Old and New

The old crop of carrots in Canada seem to be rapidly reaching their "Best If Used By" date as the old year winds down.  The challenging weather conditions the crop was grown and harvested under seem to be the culprits.  Hot dry weather during the heart of the growing season along with inadequate irrigation stressed the plants.  The harvest season was also unusually warm which led to more stress in the storages.  The combination is now affecting appearance and shelf life on supermarket shelves.  The chain stores have patience with  their local suppliers, but too many poor arrivals will spur calls for new carrots, especially when abundant supplies of Georgia carrots become available in January.  Meanwhile, packers will have to grade to an ever tighter standard or risk losing business to those who will.

Legislating healthy eating

Marc Bittman of the NYT is a very intense writer on the subject of food; growing it, preparing it and of course, eating food.  His style is forthright, but even a staunch liberal like yours truly can be put off by his hectoring approach to junk food.  He compares dietary lawmaking to a seat belt law.  It may infringe on your god given right to drive without seat belts or have that 32 oz. Big Gulp, but it has been proven in both cases to save lives.  Diabetes kills as surely as meeting your windshield at 60 MPH.  It just takes longer in the case of soda consumption and unfortunately a fatality from disease is way more expensive to society.  It just seems like a bigger infringement on our freedom to prevent us from drinking a soda.  I know that with the right campaign, the children will harass their parents in the matter of calorie consumption as surely as my kids policed seat belt use in our family car.  While I can't say I look forward to the so called "Nanny State" looking over my shoulder and making dietary decisions for me, I don't see a humane alternative.  Surely we will take care of our fellow citizens who continue to overindulge in dietary car crashes, but at what cost to society.  Most of these are low income, low information consumers who will be unable to afford the health care neccesitated by their choices.  Should we let them die slow painful deaths.  I think not.  On the bright side, if we can convince the 4 can a day soda drinker to eat healthy, it will be a boon to the fresh veg industry.

Green Christmas

Maybe not monetarily, but weatherwise it looks like a green Christmas this year.  It was 38 degrees and raining this morning and we should be in the forties before the day is over.  Welcome to the new normal.  The long range forecast is for cold weather by Christmas day, but no snow.   Meanwhile the vegtable deal seems stuck in reverse with little hope for improvement on too many items.  Lettuce is the chief offender, as the growers in Yuma seem to have forgotten the spanking they got last year.  Obviously one requirement for growers is a short memory, but this is ridiculous.  I guess there will be more bankruptcies and reorganizations by the time the Salinas deal begins next June.

Concentration

It is hard to think about the mundane world of vegtable sales and delivery when your thoughts keep veering back to the tragedy in Ct. on Friday and the rage that these innocents must die for the American obsession with guns.  According to the news reports, the shooter's mother was the registered owner of the assault rifle and semi-automatic hand guns used in this atrocity.  What conceivable reason could there be for a 52 year old woman to amass that much firepower in a quiet suburban community.  I'm sure there will be much more information to come regarding the circumstances that led to the massacre, but the 500 lb. gorilla of obscenely easy access to the instruments of deadly force must be dealt with.

Suffer the little children to come unto me

The tragedy in Conneticut today makes me wish I believed in heaven and hell.  Heaven for the children killed as innocents in a morality play and hell for the coward who killed himself instead of face the horrific consequences of his crime.  The commenters will make pious noises about the tragedy and after a day or two Sandy Hook Elementary will recede from the national psyche, leaving the families to cope with their unspeakable loss.  That makes how many massacres in America this year.  We are so worried about terrorists sneaking into the country, yet we seem to be nuturing a home grown crop of mindless haters armed to the teeth and willing to die as they live out their sick fantasies.  When will we usher the NRA and its allies into a padded cell and proceed to have an adult discussion about guns and the violence they beget.  Some idiots have already suggested the whole thing could have been prevented if only the teachers were packing heat.  This B.S. should be treated with the scorn it so richly deserves.  Meanwhile, my heart goes out to the survivors.  They should get all the help they need, paid for by the manufacturers of the guns used today.

Junkifying our food

Pepsico is looking for new sources of revenue, so they are now proposing to "drinkify"  foods.  Sounds pretty disgusting, and knowing the source, their first target will probably be something like milky way candy bars.  According to the press release, some company in Brazil is already offering liquid oatmeal in containers.  Somehow, I can't see the need for this particular product, but it fits with the program of  highly processing more and more foods.  I guess the final iteration of this trend will be out childhood experience of watching astronaunts enjoy a "roast beef dinner" squeezed out of a toothpaste tube.

hard sledding

An old New England aphorism extols the virtues of winter and describes summer as "six weeks of hard sledding".  Well, according to a NYT article on the effects of global warming on the ski industry, the sledding will get progressively harder in years to come.  The author says if current trends continue, by the end of the century, the ski industry will be less than 25% of its current size.  Of New York's 36 resorts, only 9 will still be able to maintain a 100 day season.  It is not explicitly stated, but that seems to be the break point for economic viability.  Here on the NCR, I was able to play golf on Dec. 8.  Meanwhile, Whiteface Mountain, probably the coldest resort in NY was able to make snow and open on Thanksgiving, but I don't think it is open now.  I think in my lifetime, I will play golf on New Year's Day in the North Country.  Forget the sledding.

Superbugs and Silent Spring

Rachel Carson's groundbreaking book, Silent Spring, awakened many around the world to the dangers of pesticides.  While many of the most egregious offenders, such as DDT and the dioxin class of pesticides were either banned or tightly controlled, there have been developed a panopoly of perhaps even more dangerous replacements.  The very ubiquity of many of these pesticides has deadened the warning signals to which we should be paying attention.  Roundup is one culprit.  Although it has not been shown to cause any human cancers yet, the steady use of this herbicide, especially on genentically modified crops has encouraged the emergence of "superweeds" which are resistant to it and many other weed killers.  This will probably lead us down the rabbit hole of further genetic modification.  At what point will crops like corn and soybeans cease to bear resemblance to their carefully bred ancestors?  Meanwhile, we pour ever more chemicals into our environment with few concerns for human health.  New studies have actually pointed to changes to human genes by these chemicals which actually doom children to obesity.  As a dedicated organic gardener, I felt I was doing my part, while my produce selling alter ego was able to shill conventionally grown produce by closing my eyes to the pesticides, fungicides and herbicides deemed necessary to feed the growing population.  Perhaps it is time to reevaluate.

Holiday push

So far, there is no rush of wholesalers and retailers to buy produce for the holiday season.  If anything, it is the reverse, with customers refusing calls from desperate shippers.  The extended warm weather regime in Yuma has pushed some shippers up to two weeks ahead of their normal harvest schedule.  Unfortunately, sales have lagged behind increased production, leading to a huge glut of unsold lettuce, broccoli, cauliflower and baby lettuce.  Many unsold loads are rolling toward the east coast as I write this and I'm sure the results will be predictable.  At some point, the weather will cool and gaps in the production schedules will appear.  This will be followed by a huge hike in prices at the farm.  Whether the rest of the industry will even care will depend on sales during the next two weeks.  Strap in tightly as it will be a wild ride.

Labor and capital

Paul Krugman and several other economists are pointing to a dichotomy in productivity gains.  Up until the 1980s, the common wisdom was as productivity rose, the gains were shared by labor and the rentier class of capitalists.  As long as labor is a necessary ingredient of production, the laboring class could demand at least some of the productivity gain.  However, now the equation may be changing.  More and more robots with enhanced Artificial Intelligence are taking over some mundane tasks, as well as jobs that require college level skills.  I remember as a child being told that in the future, electricity would be too cheap to meter, and productivity gains would be so high, the average worker would have to figure out what to do with all the free time he would have on his hands.  The part we weren't told was we will all be un or underemployed with no money to use to enjoy all this free time.  What the plutocrats probably realize, but won't do anything about until the torches and pitchforks appear on their doorsteps is you cannot concentrate wealth indefinitely without creating a permanent underclass like France, circa 1789.  It ain't a pretty sight, despite the Hollywood treatment of Les Miserables.  A boost of the minimum wage to $15.00/hr. and a return to the marginal tax rates of the 1950s would go a long way toward boosting demand and achieving full employment.  The machines will be working for free, so let's let them lead us to the promised land as embodied by the 1964 World's Fair.  Otherwise, we'll be looking at a Blade Runner future.

slipping toward Christmas

Although it was 38 degrees and raining on the NCR this morning, there was snow on the grass to remind us that it is the 10th of December.  You would not have known that over the weekend.  Overcast skies and temps in the 40s on Saturday and bright sunshine on Sunday made me think of late October, especially as I harvested spinach and carrots for dinner on Sat. before watching the Divine Mrs. M sing in a production of Handel's Messiah.  The weather prediction for the week is another roller coaster, with rain alternating with nights in the teens.  If this keeps up, there will be fresh spinach for Christmas.  But I won't count on it.

Climate Cliff

With all the pearl clutching and hyperventilation going on about the "fiscal cliff", the impending climate cliff we are heading over is a vastly more dangerous precipice.  According to one study, global average temps could go up by 7 degrees F. by the year 2060.  While I don't expect to be straining the planet's resources at that point, my nascent grandchildren and their offspring will literally be lounging under the palm trees on the NCR (that's North Country Riviera for those who may not follow this blog on a regular basis).  That's definitely the most optimistic take on the effects of climate change for this area.  We are in for a wild ride, even if all governments around the world jump into remediation efforts on a full scale basis this year.  Of course the knuckle dragging science deniers in the US Congress will probably undo the efforts of the rest of the world because free enterprise.  I don't like to be downbeat about the future of humanity, but if I was offered a trip to the future, I would pass on it right now, or at least request a full environment space suit.

"healthy" snacks

The above is really an oxymoron, almost as funny as "reasonable" republican.  People generally don't associate the words healthy and snacks.  The boomer generation especially thinks of snacks as Twinkies, ring dings, etc.  with maybe a glass of milk to give the calories a fig leaf of nutrition.  That's why I had to laugh when Chiquita Brands latest riff is to emphasize healthy snacks in North America through its Fresh Express division.  A salad is great, as are carrot sticks, celery and any other fresh vegetables you care to name, but snacks they are not.

It's the weather, stupid

The northern half of the continent continues wild swings between winter and summer, while the southern half continues to deal with slightly above normal, but very good growing conditions.  The combination produces a market which is oversupplied and under demanded.  Seemingly, each produce item goes from scarcity to oversupply in a day or two.  The Mexican market will fill each short overnight with the sophisticated communication technology available.  As always, it all goes back to supply and demand.   Right now it is out of balance, and with the weather patterns continuing to shift, it looks like a bumpy ride for markets between now and Christmas.

Weather and pricing

What do Yuma, Arizona and southern Florida have in common, besides being the winter growing areas for most vegetables produced in the US?  Right now, the weather in both places is Chamber of Commerce perfect.  This leads to the second point of commonality;  low prices for said produce.  Usually, bad weather, i.e. frosts, excessive heat, torrential rains in one area leads to higher prices in the other.  Right now, beautiful weather in both areas is a drag on pricing.  Add lack of demand which is traditional in the time after Thanksgiving and you have a trifecta of bad.  It seems all the bad weather is occuring in places where the commodity crops such as wheat and corn are or will be planted.  Texas is sliding back into drought mode again.  This may have some effect on veg pricing, but compared to Florida and Arizona, Texas has little to say in this regard.  If the weather affects imports from Mexico, then we may see some increases in winter veg pricing, but for now it is a tough sell.

Dried Fruits and Nuts

It looks like another bonanza for another undeserving industry, brought to you by President Obama.  After his first election, gun sales skyrocketed as racists stocked up for the coming war with the blahs and browns.  Now, the dehydrated meal industry is gearing up for the coming black apocolypse following the President's second election.  I heard that one bunch of nut jobs in Texas have a fortified redoubt with a year's supply of food (and probably thousands of rounds of ammo) to defend against the godless hordes.  Failing that, their fallback plans involve evacuation in four stripped down school buses which they plan to use like a modern day wagon train, complete with a "circle up" mode where they park in a four square template with heavy duty machine guns commanding the approaches.  Some people have way too much time on their hands.  As if to punctuate this absurdity, I came on a website offering a year's supply of dried food for around $1400.00 (plus shipping and handling).  I to can hole up in a bunker with my dried beef stroganoff as life in these United States goes permanently (or at least til we elect a republican president) to hell.  Bon Apetit.

Old and New

The new seed catalogs are arriving every day, each with the promise of easy harvests of picture perfect vegetables.  The florid style of many of the descriptions is almost vegetable porn to us dedicated gardeners.   Of course, what they don't make clear is the hard work necessary to get to the pictures they so artfully dangle in front of us.  At least it will make the winter evenings go by faster.
   Meanwhile, the mild weather this past weekend allowed me to continue harvesting carrots.  They had a collar of frozen soil about 2 inches deep, but were easy to fork up and separate, especially with temps in the low 50s by afternoon.  I'll probably never get all of them, but we'll have enough in storage for a good part of the winter.  Although if we start juicing them we'll run out much sooner.  It looks like winter will make a comeback later this week, so aside from spinach and collards, the harvesting season is pretty much over.
    The divine Mrs. M and I hunted for holiday trees yesterday and I was struck by the paucity of the offerings in our area.  A couple of lots featured locally grown trees, but the number and size were much smaller than previous years.  We found a tree that almost met my partner's specifications at a national chain's lot, and settled on it, since it looked like a fool's errand to continue the search.  I wonder if this is the new normal with just a few lots of natural trees to choose from.