Cliff Diving

I'm sure as we approach Jan. 1 the title of this post will grace many op-eds in papers around the country.  It's just too perfect.  Even if it is a bunch of malarkey, the picture it calls to mind is so powerful, it can't be resisted by cool reason.  A crisis is much more fun than a slow moving freight train if you are a TV personality or a columnist.  Also, why waste words on boring fiscal analysis which would surely justify the Democrats position when you can show the donkey and the elephant charging over the "cliff" in lockstep.  Then it's nobody's fault.  Or everybody's.  Personally, I think we should let the tax rate go back to Clinton era levels on everyone making more than $100,000/year.  Then raise the rates progressively and add new brackets to account for the 2% of the population who have garnered most of the wealth the country has created in the last 30 years.  Let's go to a top tax rate of 70% on income over $10,000.000/year.  Even Warren Buffet may squeal at that, but that is what it will take to bring down the deficit and maintain the minimal safety net programs the rest of the population now "enjoys".  Globalization has stratified the wealth to a degree not seen since the great depression and there needs to be a mechanism to redistribute the spoils among the greater population.   Without some variation of the above, the middle class will cease to exist and the winds of revolution will begin to blow.

Coastal futures

If someone was offering coastal futures on the stock market, I think it would be classified as a very risky investment.  A new study by a respected, non partisan outfit says sea level is now rising at a rate that is 60% higher than what previous studies have predicted.  The chance of "once in a century" storms is so much higher, they will probably be classified as "once in a decade" storms.  You can only imagine what a "once in a millenium" storm will be like. 
   One casualty of these storms will be agriculture in coastal areas.   Even if not overrun by storm surges, these storms and the torrential rainfall associated with them will effectively wipe out many farmers in these areas.  While vegetable growers will be most affected, all agricultural endeavors will be significantly more risky.  Considering the loss of prime ag land around major metro areas, this latest threat may be the death knell of large scale local ag along the east coast.  Smaller, boutique operations will continue, and if federal insurance is available and not too pricy, commodity crops will still be planted.  Still, it is hard to envision growers planting extensive acres for fall harvest if superstorms like Sandy become the norm.

vegetable snobbery

Two articles in the NYT this morning are indicative of the snobbery that is pretty common in the nation's paper of record.  Glowing reviews of a vegetarian restaurant called "Dirt Candy" and it's dessert menu which includes eggplant tiramisu make you wonder if we are on the same planet.  They don't mention prices, but with only 18 tables in the dining area, the price per meal must come to over $100.00 just to make the rent, let alone a profit.  Meanwhile, Mark Bittman who is ordinarily an "everyman" in the kitchen is trying to convince everyone to make salads with radish tops.  WTF.  In his defense, he also has a op-ed piece highlighting the rise of food banks and local food "pantries" to combat hunger in this country.  With over 48,000,000 people eligible for food stamps and more being added to the rolls each year, it would seem this is prima facie evidence of the widening gulf between the rich and poor in the US.  Instead, the Republican nominee for President this year attempted to demonize the program and its recipients and brand his opponent as the "Food Stamp President."  Instead of proposing programs to help get these people off the programs, he wanted to abolish them.  Granny starving indeed.  The saddest part of the entire piece was Bittman noting that people who are given staples like rice and beans are ignorant of how to prepare them.  Too many happy meals and highly processed heat and eat meals have weaned an entire generation from the joy and satisfaction of preparing food using raw materiasl such as the above mentioned rice and beans and cheap vegetables like cabbage and potatoes. 

Flip Flops

Sometimes weather and markets seem to track one another.  The weather is on a roller coaster right now with temps dropping to single digits on Friday morning and rising to the mid 40s by Sunday. The veg markets for onions and carrots seem to be in a similar mood.  Every time they start to rise, something or someone pulls the rug out and the pricing drops into the basement again.  It now seems that both items will get stronger as we head in to the Christmas season.  Western onions are getting bullish, and the Mexican carrot deal, while weaker than it was a couple of weeks ago still puts a floor under the Canadian deal.  Or at least that is the way it looks now.  Hopefully the veg deals can avoid the weather flops and flips.

So it begins

After the clear and chilly weekend, woke up to snow on the ground this morning.  Not much and it will melt later, but not what I was hoping for as we head into December.  The winter tires are still in the barn, so the ride to work was interesting to say the least.  Let's just say the going was easy, but the stopping was hard.  Meanwhile, the garden will probably put itself to sleep this week, especially by Thursday, when temps will remain below freezing for at least 36 hours.  Most hardy vegetables can deal with freezing temps, sometimes single digits, as long as they can thaw out.  Also, the ground must remain unfrozen.   Frozen dirt, brisk winds and subfreezing temps spell tipburn.  It has been a good run.

Hunger and the Holiday

In the food business, most buyers and sellers rarely think about hunger, except in an abstract sense.  We satisfy people's hunger.  The thought that millions of fellow Americans, not to mention billions of people around the world will go hungry tomorrow is barely conceivable to most of us.  We talk about a cornucopia of produce every day, including much that is wasted.  In this area, hundreds of tons of "deer carrots" are hauled into the woods each fall to tempt deer into range of lazy hunters tree stands.  Meanwhile, the homeless and hungry line up for free Thanksgiving dinners which salve the conscience of the do-gooders who serve them.  If a couple of the richest nations in the world can't make sure all of their citizens have enough to eat how can the rest of the world provide for the needy of their own?  It seems the only thing many countries can over produce is more human beings.  It is not a sustainable situation.

The ghost of Thanksgivings past

The Thanksgiving rush is just a ghost of its former self.  When I started in the business in the 80's, the fourth Thursday of November was the apothesis of the fall season.  People started to prepare for and talk about it in September.  Every weather event, market change and supply estimate was seen through the prism of the one day eating extravaganza at the end of the month.  Gradually, the urgency has leaked out of this deal, to the point some people have discounted it entirely.  The potatoes, onions, carrots and other hardware have built in discounts.  The few fresh vegetables which were once reliable bellweathers, such as cauliflower and broccoli don't move at all.  There is such abundance of choices that anyone who tries to push up prices on individual items is met with indifference or downright hostility.  The key to moving volume is to guarantee supply and price on a year round basis.  The holidays are merely speed bumps in the process, rather than marketing opportunities.