Stupor Sunday

About the only produce items moving well this weekend will be avocados, salsa, and vegetable party trays.  The annual bacchanalia known as Super Sunday will drive most of us into a high calorie coma well before the last pass is thrown and the Seahawks walk off the field in celebration of their first win in the big game.  Of course, most people at the party will be barely paying attention to the screen between commercials.  How this usually pedestrian game played in the beginning of February became such a cultural touchstone is beyond me.   Perhaps it offers a chance for a day off from worries about our personal economies, the same way the two hours or so we spend in a darkened movie theater allows a respite from humdrum reality.  I remember watching the first couple of superbowls, when the Packers dispatched the AFL representatives with ease.  Things changed the next year when Joe Namath guaranteed victory for the upstart Jets against the Colts.  That game probably stamped the Game on the American conscious and began the hype we experience now.  So, let the salsa and guacamole flow, get out the popcorn and enjoy.  We can worry about politics and vegetables next week.

Slogging into spring

We are still a long way from the first morning with a promise of spring.  The good burghers of Punxatawney will probably have to drag the resident groundhog out of his burrow on Sunday.  Still, the days are getting longer and I'm about to send my first seed order of the new year.  I haven't added it up yet, but my impression is it will be significantly more expensive than last year.   Not so much because the quantities are larger.  The seeds are more expensive.  A packet of seed cost around 40-50 cents when I started gardening in the 70s of the last century.  The same packet (with less seed)now costs around 4 dollars.  Many packets contain 25 seeds or less.  While the casual gardener is probably not deterred by this inflation, it seems to me the cost of the seed is outstripping the price of the finished vegetable.  Certainly for commercial growers, the cost of seed has gone from an afterthought to one of the larger inputs when figuring costs/acre.  Enough seed to plant an acre of spinach in 1980 cost in the neighborhood of $20.  the same amount of seed now costs closer to $400.  Closer spacing for baby spinach can push the price to $1000.00 or more.   But, enough of the gloom and doom.  The descriptions in my catalog promise firm, juicy, delectable vegetables and that is what I will keep thinking about as February drags on.

SOTU and the rest of us

sorry I was out of town, so missed a couple of posts.  Listened to snips of the SOTU and some of the commentary and doubt I would have gotten much more sitting through the whole thing.  The main news is the president putting congress on notice he will use executive orders to effect change whenever possible if the nation's legislators can't get their act together.  This led to the requisite hand wringing by the republicans who had no intention of acting on the president's agenda.  By unilaterally raising the minimum wage for federal contractors the president will give democrats something to run on this fall.  Many programs or proposed legislation like that is popular with most Americans and the GOP ignores this at their peril.  Most of us were waiting for Mr. Obama to act decisively and prod congress to catch up or risk irrelevancy.  Let's see if Boehner and his merry men get the message.

Hilary and the new populism

While everyone waits for the shoe to drop and Hilary to announce her candidacy for president, it would be well to think about what she might bring to the table.   Faced with the inevitability of climate change, the persistence of high inequality of income in this country and political instability around the world, we need a leader with a clear grasp of the issues and a plan.  I don't think anyone doubts her ability.  What we need to see is her passion to come to grips with the problems and lead the whole country in solving them.  There is little doubt that somewhere between 20 and 30% of the population will consider any Democratic president to be illegitimate.  These dead-enders are the same ones who still consider the shrub to be a great president and they can safely be ignored.  Ms. Clinton needs to reach the 70% of the population who are persuadable and convince them we need to tackle the climate, class inequality and global peace as priorities.  If she embraces this new populism, a majority of the country will eagerly follow.  If, on the other hand she pushes the tired "Third Way", also known as more of the same, she will lose many who would otherwise be supporters.  It will not be enough to be the first woman president.  She needs to be the first candidate and first president of all the people.

Proportion

According to a story on the weather channel this morning, almost 780 million people get up every morning, knowing they will be drinking, washing and cooking with dirty water.  We only take heed of these figures when a spectacular accident like the one which polluted the water which is used by 300,000 people in W. Virginia forces itself onto the national conscience.  We may have to get used to such headlines in years to come.   California and the west coast are cruising into the worst drought since record keeping began in the 1800's.  The great lakes are losing water to evaporation and lack of precipitation.  Wild swings in weather are also affecting other areas of the country and highlighting the huge role water plays in our national health.   I could go off in a rant about how we take this resource for granted, or how we are ignoring the signals the climate is sending us.  What is even more disheartening is the lack of a serious national conversation about this problem.  The right wing obsesses about Obamacare and its chief architect, while the left pursues Chris Christie and his merry men.  When will people take real problems and deal with them instead of sharpening their ideological knives.   If the weather channel is our best hope for debate on this problem, we are well and truly screwed.

Food Rankings

Digging a little deeper into the Oxfam report which ranks the nations in several categories relating to food abundance, safety, security and quality, Mark Bittman sees the obvious deficiencies in our system.  While we rank first in food affordability, we are 4th in food quality and an abysmal 120th (out of 125) in healthy eating.  The problems are many and varied.  While we can produce amazing amounts of food in this country, much of it is done by industrial agriculture.  Vast amounts of this production is corn, which is either converted to ethanol for cars, fed to animals, or turned into high fructose corn syrup.  The latter is used in the production of "foodlike substances" which are neither nutritious, or delicious, but are causing much of the epidemic of diabetes and obesity which is plaguing  America.  The problem then is not the actual production of food, but the kind of food, its distribution and the what is actually presented to the public.  There are whole generations and subcultures in this country who have little or no idea of what healthy eating is all about.  The Dept. of Agriculture, which could be a resource for consumers is dedicated to production of quantity.  There is no agency tasked with helping ordinary citizens make healthy choices.  The food stamp program, while laudable in its intent to provide food, does not help the poor with menu choices or food prep.  It also does not encourage the choice of good food, so much of the benefits wind up being used to buy junk food.  These substances are high in fats, calories and salt, but not nutrition.   Most of us dislike the heavy hand of people like former Mayor of NY, Micael Bloomberg who famously tried to limit the intake of huge soft drinks, the lack of individual responsibility for health makes a case for more government intervention in diets.  At least there should be incentives for good nutritional choices and above all for the production and consumption of more fruits and vegetables.

Cold and colder

It's another cold one on the NCR.  -10 F this morning and no end in sight this week.  With a Nor'easter predicted for the mid-atlantic states, demand for fresh fruits and veggies will be depressed.  Meanwhile in the California and Arizona desert growing areas the weather remains warm and dry.  This of course is the classic double whammy.  No demand and abundant supplies.  The only way to build demand would be a drastic decrease in price, but that is not the way the system works these days.  The chain stores, which control most of the volume of fruits and vegetables are in the main, run by bean counters who really have no empathy with growers.  They see their mission as maximizing profits without concern for those who supply the means to those profits.  Instead of passing on the absurdly cheap prices being quoted on the FOB markets, the chains rely on the contract pricing they have negoitiated with major growers.  This moves a fraction of the available produce at high prices, leaving much of the crop in the field or being sold to wholesalers for next to nothing.  In either case, the consumer is left with high prices which leads to low sales which further depresses the market.  It's the classic negative feedback loop.  Welcome to January in the produce biz.

Into the Deep Freeze

Looks like an old fashioned winter here on the NCR.  With the latest blast from the north, we will be below zero most nights this week and barely above during the days.  Add an inch or two of snow every other day and the miserable picture is complete.   The main body of Lake Champlain remains open, but if the wind drops over the next few days, most of the bays and backwaters will freeze solid.   It has been several years since I was able to ski around some of the local islands, but it looks like I'll have the chance again this winter.  It is better to get out and do something than sit inside and complain, but there will be plenty of chances to do that also.  Meanwhile, it remains warm and epically dry in the west.  A drought emergency in California will begin to put restrictions on agriculture.  The farming interests in California use 75-80%of the state's water, but the cities are increasingly thirsty, so it is possible there may be cutbacks in lettuce acreage this summer.  That will make for higher prices at retail and opportunities for eastern growers.

The suppression of the debate on climate change

At this point, there really is little to debate.  The vast majority of climate scientists have weighed in and overwhelmingly point to man's role in climate change.  Meanwhile, polls have shown fewer Americans believe in climate change than did 10 years ago.   I believe the experts and support concerted government efforts to curtail carbon emissions.  However, very few of our elected representatives are pushing the necessary legislation.  The wingnutosphere, fueled by money from those who are making money in the short term by denying the inevitability of climate change, ridicule anyone who presents the data.  Al Gore is fat, and besides, it is snowing in North Carolina.  We have probably passed the point where relatively painless measures will hold greenhouse gasses in check.  The longer we put off the work of changing to a green economy, the harder it will become.  Now that the Divine Mrs. M and yours truly are about to become grandparents, my perspective is changing.  My prospective descendent will come of age as some of the more horrific predictions of weather scientists begin to manifest.  Rising sea levels, super storms, droughts and extreme temperatures will become daily news as we edge toward the mid 21st century.  I hope he or she does not look at her immediate ancestors as the ones who became aware of the danger and did nothing to avert it.  I think we need to try to make sure there is a future for the following generations.  I am going to start demanding action from my representatives in Congress and the President.  I suggest anyone who reads this do likewise. 

The grinches who stole the unemployment extension

Once again, the party of stupid has also shown its mendacious side.  Instead of passing a clean extension of unemployment benefits for the long term unemployed, the GOP keeps insisting the government must cut other programs to pay for the extension.  As I and many others have said before, this makes no sense from either an economic or moral perspective.  Despite the call for these "lazy moochers" to get off their butts and get a job, there are no jobs for many who have been out of work for more than a year.  To voice the heretofore unsayable, many of these people will never find jobs in our evolving economy.  As corporations continue to do more with less people, we need to come to terms with a permanent class of unemployables.  The alternative is for the government to become the employer of last resort.  This presents another conundrum to the heartless.   They want to cut benefits, but they are unwilling to make sure everyone who wants to work can get a job.  As our social contract evolves, the government must become more involved in people's lives, not less.  Either that or I can envision a dystopic future including walled compounds and security guards holding back the proletariat, or a bread and circuses, Roman Empire type of society.  Neither is a pretty picture, and the Republicans seem determined to destroy the social contract.  Unfortunately, they don't seem to offer anything but a dark vision of the future.

Food quality listing

Believe it or not, in terms of food systems, the US ranks 20th in the world according to the advocacy group Oxfam.  They rank food systems according to availability of quality food, affordability, cost and the eating habits of the countries citizens.   As you might expect, the fourth variable is what brings down the US ranking.  Despite the abundance and cheapness of the food available, many Americans make extremely bad choices.  Obesity and diseases associated with excessive calorie consumption rank us below most European countries and some in Asia. 

Weather woes and social justice

The weather channel is seemingly all about public service lately as it campaigns to be included in the Direct TV lineup.  They even trotted out the venerable Jim Cantore to inveigh against the possibility of no more weather channel on Direct.   As the supplier pointed out, it has plenty of weather spots on normally and the Weather Channel is getting more and more into reality TV with little connection to weather.  I find the idea of a for profit weather channel which uses almost exclusively data which is provided free of charge by the federal government almost ludicrous.  Especially when some idiot congressman says we should cut funding or do away with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration because the Weather Channel is doing such a good job.  The other issue which caught my attention today is the plethora of news about social justice.  From news of democratic reforms in Tunisia to popular uprisings in Cambodia to the Pope appointing new Cardinals from poor, under represented regions of the Catholic landscape, it seems the voice of the people will be heard.

Economic Policy and Unemployment

  Paul Krugman recently compared the economic policies of western Europe and the US to a three stooges skit where one of them asked the other why he was banging his head against the wall and, I think it was Curly who replied, "Because it feels so good when I stop".  Meaning, the austerity policies adopted by these countries have been hurting them, and if they stop, their economies will improve even if they do nothing to stimulate them.  that seems pretty much what is happening in the US right now.  The job numbers are up and optimism is in the air in the private sector.  Of course, the long term unemployed are still hurting and likely to remain so.  Unless Congress approves some sort of job plan to employ many of these people, they will likely remain unemployable.  A writer in Rolling Stone recently suggested that anyone who can't find a job and wants one should have a guarantee the government will be the employer of last resort and pay them a living wage to do something.  This is reminiscent of the WPA under Franklin Roosevelt at the height of the Great Depression.  This program worked well until the war production programs of the early 1940s eliminated the need for it.   If this program was reinstituted now, there would be increased pressure for wage gains among the Walmarts of the world who would have to compete with government jobs.  While this is anathema for corporate America, it would be a boon to the 99%.

Year round fresh or not

NPR is doing a series of articles on the North American Free Trade Agreement and its effects on Mexico, Canada and the US.  Today's concerned the increasing availability of Mexican fresh vegetables 365 days a year in the other two countries.  It was done in a light hearted way, but it raised some serious issues for all concerned.   The food safety issues are way overblown, and from personal experience, I can say I would trust the Mexican exporters at least as much as the average American or Canadian grower.  Mexican agriculture has come a long way, guided in part by California growers who have poured millions into state of art of facilities.  Since the laborers are the same on both sides of the border, in many cases, the Mexicans have better food safety.  The larger issue is the breezy assumption that we should have tomatoes, string beans, squash, etc. available every day all year long.  Many people, myself included make a living from this trade, but I at least have a nagging feeling the whole trade is unsustainable in the long run.   The entire enterprise on both sides of the border is built on cheap fuel and cheap labor as well as a transportation infrastructure which is crumbling and not being rebuilt in a timely fashion. 

Inequality and democracy

When Lyndon Johnson declared war on poverty 50 years ago in Kentucky, nearly 30% of Americans were living below the line that defined poverty.  There are fewer of us beneath that line today, but both the poor and the middle class have seen their standing become more precarious every year.  Lose your good paying job and you can find yourself sliding down the social ladder very quickly.  Most households are a paycheck away from difficulty.  Meanwhile, lawmakers from the county level all the way to US congress continue to chip away at the social safety net, mostly claiming that those helped by these programs need to pull themselves up and not count on the government to help them.  Meanwhile, the same government has its hand on the scale, passing legislation and tax breaks that disproportionally help the top 10% and especially the top 1% at the expense of the rest of the population.  It's no wonder.  As elections become more and more expensive to win, only the well heeled and well connected can afford to enter public service.  It costs hundreds of thousands and even millions to win a seat in the House of Representatives and tens of millions to become a senator.  If you can finance your own campaign, you are part of the 1%.  If you can't, you will probably be beholden to the 1% for the funds you need to run.  This creates a pliant and indeed robust voice for the richest who are increasingly not even among us any more.  The disconnect is evident in republican talking points; cut taxes on the rich and shred the safety net and all will be well.  The mythical "job creators" will then be unleashed in the service of the rest of us.  As most of us intuitively know, this is hogwash at best.  The reason so many are so close to poverty is that so many have no jobs and have no money.  Less money means less demand.  It is a simple formula for societal misery, and until we address some of the above issues it will continue to concentrate wealth and ignore the factors which enable this unhealthy behavior.

Frozen thoughts

The markets for southern vegetables will continue to be bullish as the freezing weather continues.  South Georgia and northern Florida will take big hits as the temperatures fall into the teens and 20s.  This is fodder for climate change deniers, some of whom claim we are now entering a new Ice Age.  I wonder what they will be saying in July when temps on the east coast and the Midwest top out in the low 100s.   Meanwhile, consumers will pay more for squash and cucumbers in coming weeks.  California is facing a drought situation not seen in decades, although one Pacific storm could erase the moisture deficit at any time.  Most veg growers don't depend on Federal water projects for their supplies.  They usually pump water from underground aquifers which have not been affected by the drought so far.  If it continues for a second year, lettuce and celery could become scarce in the nation's salad bowl.  Talking to a spinach grower in Texas yesterday, we both agreed agriculture has become steadily more challenging as the new weather regime has overturned conventional wisdom regarding farming. The new generation of farmers will have to be far more risk oriented than their predecessors, otherwise, there will have to be much more government subsidies to entice them to keep planting with these uncertain forecasts.

Quick Changes

Unlike our frozen political discourse, the weather is changing wildly this week.  As I write this it is 45 degrees on the NCR, or about 60 degrees warmer than it was on Saturday morning.  By nightfall, we will be back in the single digits.  After that it will warm back up to the mid 30s by Friday with freezing rain again.  There will be collapsing roofs around the north country;  hopefully none will be mine.  Meanwhile, the congress will be looking to continue the pain for the long term unemployed.  While legislation to restore benefits will be introduced, the Ayn Rand caucus will filibuster the bill, because it will do a "disservice" to said unemployed by allowing them to not find the non-existent jobs that are currently begging.  NOT.  With three applicants for every job opening, employers can be extremely picky and one of the first disqualifications they make are for those who have not had a job for more than a few months.  The stigma, especially for a worker in their 50s and early 60s is devastating and will probably prevent many from ever  returning to gainful employment.  If the government is not willing to be the employer of last resort, just continue the benefits until these people reach retirement.  It would be a kinder, gentler way to keep the economy going until it can generate the numbers of jobs necessary to reach full employment.

Another day in the Sub-Zero

I was whining about the cold weather last night to an former  air force brat who set me straight.  His family was stationed in Minot, North Dakota during the 70s and 14 below would have seemed like a walk in the park.  However, it is what you get used to that counts, and although the NCR is sometimes known as the Frozen North, we have not had weather like this in at least 6 or 7 years.  So I'll keep whining until I get used to it.  Under a snow and cold weather emergency, New York closed the main road heading South last night and of course hundreds of trucks were stopped from delivering their cargoes.  With NYC and much of New England covered in new snow, the deliveries will be backed up for days and future orders will be uncertain until the roads are cleared and customers can reach stores.  Meanwhile, the NFL is getting a preview of what might happen in New Jersey on Super Bowl Sunday, and it isn't pretty.

One down

It's 14 degrees below 0 as I write this and I'm not happy.   Winter on the NCR is looking more brutal by the day.  2014 has started, but the weather is definitely retro.  This is more like something the locals experienced back in the 50s and 60s.  Of course the climate deniers will be out in force.  Meanwhile in Australia, the temps are in the 120s.  The changes mankind is making to the weather are not uniform and some areas may experience colder weather for a time, but the general trend is for higher temps and erratic weather events.  California is in a drought situation which may affect fresh vegetable prices in the future.  If growers cannot get enough water, they will not be able to grow the volume of crops  they might wish and the supply will not meet demand, leading to higher prices.  So, climate change will indirectly affect all of us.  One day into the new year and I already feel like Cassandra.  Hopefully, Pollyanna will come out to play tomorrow.