Friday, September 16, 2022

Data and your lying eyes

       It is amazing how people can torment innocent data so it aligns with their expectations.   The latest economic predictions are a case in point.  One measure, inflation expectations over the short term, shows producers are banking on lower inflation.  Meanwhile, another index, showing inflation somewhat stubbornly not falling because of high food prices, has many people spooked and calling for harsh measures.

     The right wants to put the brakes on the economy and use the subsequent pain for political gain.  The left would like to ignore inflation in favor of the vast numbers of poor and middle class who potentially benefit as their debt becomes less burdensome when paid for by cheap dollars.  Both are right and wrong.  The Federal Reserve is committed to disinflation, but also seems to be sending signals it  may tolerate more inflation in the short run if it allows a "soft landing" for the economy.   Who do you trust, the data or your lying eyes.

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