Stepping back from the edge

      It looks like the Brazilian people by a razor thin margin have ushered Jair Bolsonaro out of office and installed Ignacio lula da Silva as president.   Lula carries a heavy load of political baggage, but as I said last week he is the frail hope of those who would see the Amazon rain forest preserved for future generations.

     Much like Biden over tRump and Macron over Le Pen in France, voters seem to be rejecting fascism and at least affirming their support for a democratic regime in these countries.   The jury is out on the prospects for Italy and Hungary in this regard.  What causes us to walk right up to Mussolini or Hitler style fascism only to step back at the last second?  I think it is all about power.  Not the power to the people movements in the 1960s, but power to crush the "other" and affirm the supremacy of our own tribe.  In most cases these days it is the angst of whites confronting a demographic wave which they feel will sweep them into irrelevance.

    On a worldwide basis, whites are a rather small minority.  Concentrated in Europe and the Americas, whites are responsible for many of the world's ills as well as much of the technology which enables modernity.   We need to accept our place in the world and work for everyone's betterment.  Let's hope Lula is the tip of the spear of change. 

conservatives and the war on reality

       Bret Stephens, the NYT resident conservative has an article today showcasing his conversion from climate skeptic to "I believe in climate change, but not too much''.  Stephens' trip to Greenland earlier this summer allows him to pontificate on how those who write on climate change are too shrill and are turning off most people who don't want to hear of another existential threat to the human race.

     Stephens also invokes the magic of the invisible hand of capitalism as our savior, despite the fact that unfettered markets are a big part of the reason for climate change.  Granted, the affordability of solar and wind power has increased exponentially in the last 20 years, but much of that has been a result of government research and subsidies.   Stephens is mum on that aspect of the equation since it doesn't fit his narrative.  All in all, the article seems to be a justification of Stephens conversion, similar to the apostle Thomas and his famous skepticism regarding the resurrection of Christ.

What if the apocalypse happened and nobody came?

      It was over 72 degrees in northern New York yesterday.  This morning feels a little more autumnal with temps in the 40s, but it's still unseasonably mild.  The peppers and tomatoes are still ripening and it is almost Halloween!

     Meanwhile, a Brazilian climate activist writing in the NYT today is calling Sunday's elections in that country as a make or break moment in the struggle against climate change.   Bolsinaro is all in on destroying the Amazonian rain forest in the name of development, while Lula da Silva promises to protect what is left of the "lungs of the world".   It is hard to believe someone would fly in the face of all the evidence and advocate the destruction of the rainforest, but having lived through 4 years of Bolsinaro's equivalent, I guess I'm a believer.

     Based on 50 years of gardening experience in the northeast US, I can confidently state that environmental climate change is accelerating.   What are we going to do about it?

White Supremacy and the end of democracy

      It won't be the end of democracy in this country, but the results of the mid-term elections will go a long way towards setting back the rule of law in America.   The end of reconstruction in the South in the 1870's led to the passing of anti-democratic laws and the Jim Crow regime which established white supremacy in much of the country for nearly a hundred years.

      The same appeals to white supremacy are being heard today.   the election of a black president and the erosion of white majorities in many states have spooked many into endorsing candidates who explicitly promise to reverse gains made by people of color throughout the nation.   Proto fascists are coming out of the woodwork and are being supported by those who feel their way of life is being threatened.  In the short term, we will see more states like Wisconsin where the state legislature has gerrymandered a Republican minority into perpetual control.  It may take a major crisis to reverse these anti-democratic regimes, but I doubt it will be a hundred year interregnum.   Meanwhile, we need to vote like our democracy depends on it.

The price of gas and democracy

        It looks like the price of gas is the single most important factor in the coming midterm elections.   Despite all the talk of abortion rights, threats to democracy and Republicans avowed promises to try to cut Social Security and medicare the price of a gallon of gasoline will decide who controls congress for the next two years.

     How has it come to this?  I would hazard a guess and say most people pump their own gas and while it is not the biggest item in their household budget it is the most noticeable on a daily basis.  The media is good at finding the hardworking stiff who commutes several hundred miles per week with a gas guzzler which costs hundreds of dollars to keep running.  These are the kinds of stories that make headlines.  Meanwhile, the first instinct of the politically ignorant average voter is to throw out the party presiding over the price increase.

The unbearable whiteness of Republicans

      The NYT is running a well researched piece about the confluence of whiteness and election denying among Republicans.   As one source quoted in the story says, white males dominate the party and virtually to a man they eat up any story suggesting the 2020 election was stolen.  Many fear black and brown immigrants will "replace" them.  The congressional districts won by deniers are among the poorest and least educated in the country.

      The Divine Mrs. M and I recently returned from a trip to France and a river cruise on the Rhone river in the southern part of the country.   The evidence on a lively immigrant population in that country also drives whites into the arms of far right parties.   It would seem the US does not have a monopoly on bigotry and intolerance.  For the most part we avoided political conversations with out fellow cruisers who were exclusively white and well into retirement.  However, we did talk to a middle aged couple from Colorado who immediately brought up several Fox news tropes about ballots stuffed into suitcases, etc.  They reacted with pity to our argument that election fraud is not widespread.  We wound up talking past one another.

     History tells us democracy is a fragile commodity and its constituents are likely to weaken or overthrow it if their economic and or cultural views are challenged.  Our country is no exception and the threat to our freedoms has seldom been greater.  The verdict of the upcoming elections will tell us how far we have slid in the direction of autocracy.

The Economic hurricane brewing at the Fed

     In today's NYT, Paul Krugman compares the devastation wrought by Hurricane Ian to the potential damage the Federal Reserve can do by continuing its policy of raising interest rates to combat inflation.  Krugman points out the Fed's tightening of the screws on the economy will not produce notable effects for some time.  Continuing to choke off growth by further increasing rates threatens dire consequences.  He likens that to officials waiting to see which path Ian was taking before issuing evacuation orders.  By the time they did, it was too late for many people.

     In our interdependent economic world, the consequences of the keepers of the world's largest economy actions are felt all around the globe.  Those actions, like climate change charged monsters such as Ian have the potential to hurt more people than ever before.  The Fed does not act in a vacuum and are the cause in many cases of suffering around the world.  Power and responsibility go hand in hand.  It's time to pause the rate increases and wait for their effects to be felt. 

Garden update

     Lots of cool dry weather and a couple of minor frosts has slowed the gardening season to a crawl.  Tomatoes and peppers continue to ripen and the chinese broccoli is still producing.   Beets and carrots are growing slowly and the last planting of turnips may or may not make it to harvest.   It has been a season for experimentation and new growing techniques.  Overall, I am pleased with the results and look forward to the 2023 gardening  year. 

The new record holder

       Aaron Judge broke Roger Maris' record for most home runs in an American League season last night in game 161.   A self effacing mountain of a man, Judge is perhaps the best possible poster child for America's pastime.   He played the season without a long term contract and will be a free agent at the end of the season.   

     Of course, the Major league record is 73 home runs, set by Bobby Bonds in 2001 at the height of the steroid era.  His, Mark McGwire's and Sammy Sosa's marks are all tainted by steroid usage.  MLB cannot disavow the records, but I think most people know these chemically assisted records are illegitimate.  Judge has shown grace under pressure and is restoring the luster of the home run as the single most important offensive force in baseball.  Congratulations Aaron!

Why we can't quit the former guy

       Watching the travails of the former guy, aka, tRump is like rubbernecking in a traffic jam.  You are causing the problem, but you can't look away for fear you may miss seeing bodies strewn across the road.

      As tRump's legal problems mount, most of us just want the circus to be over.  We just want to see Cheeto Jesus in an orange jumpsuit with a mug shot.  But delay after delay keeps happening as his various legal teams throw sand into the gears of justice.  If he can keep out of the courtroom until he gets the Republican nomination for president he will basically be home free assuming he wins in 2024 or cheats his way into the White House.  

      tRump has zero respect for the democratic process and would throw the American experiment under the bus in a heartbeat.  That is why we can't quit the circus which continues to attend his every comment.

Ian

       The true cost of Ian is slowly being appreciated by the media.   Now they are up to "10s of billions" in estimates.   Meanwhile the average homeowner in the affected areas all across Florida are dealing with the aftermath and will continue to do so for years to come.  One tiny anecdote:  My brother and sister-in-law own a home in one of the affected areas.  It is a seasonal residence which they inhabit for several months during the winter as a getaway from upstate New York.  Friends reported water had made its way into the house, so now they are headed to Florida to fix the damage.  They have no idea if there will be power and water at their place and there will be fierce competition for supplies if any stores are open.  Multiply this story by thousands and you will get an idea of problems Florida residents and out of state homeowners face.

     I think the final costs of Ian will be in the hundreds of billions as cleanup and rebuilding progress.  Good luck finding an insurance company willing to gamble on climate change in Florida.  Increasingly, the US government will be sought out as the insurer of last resort.  Time to acknowledge the foolishness of beachside homes and businesses in the state.